Picks/Pocono/SundayAfternoon
#1
06-04-2012, 02:33 PM
Picks/Pocono/SundayAfternoon
Points, Intro, and Congratulatory Remarks
A big congrats to our veteran lougreen03, who won the Dover race with an impressive 1-2-3 pick!!! Congrats, buddy1! That was good for his first win of the season! A congrats as well to Carl, who holds the overall lead, but Brnet closed it up a bit and retook 2nd palce. Those two are running away a bit from the rest of us. There is still a lot of racing left in the season though!
Congrats as well to MCF Rookie Leprechaun93, who took the Segment 2 points lead as we head into Pocono, which is the halfway race of the segmetn... well ,techinically halfway at Pocono is halfway in the segment....
1) carlm54stl 1394 Leader
2) JuniorCar 1359 -35
3) bblackstone 1321 -73
4) SupplySgt 1319 -75
5) Cowboy6622 1315 -79
6) lougreen03 1313 -81
7) montecarlo3831 1307 -87
8) zJerry 1305 -89
9) Leprechaun93 1299 -95
10) 02 Earnhardt 1285 -109
11) 03JGMonte 1217 -177
12) butch049 1196 -208
13) 77GP 1170 -234
14) RocknSS04 1142 -262
15) silverfish 1125 -279
16) STUMPMI 1049 -345
17) SuperSportSteve 928
18) 01 Monte SS 908
19) adgm2005 778
20) 06 Mistre SS 428
21) Teacher 306
22) Ricks 2006 SS 213
23) yutzybrian 211
24) Racebound2 83
25) Possum 77
26) 04chevyboy 76
27) Emily666 61
28) SSMeansSuperSexy 60
29) mousehouse 54
Segment 2 Points
1) Leprechuan 93 448 Leader
2) carlm54stl 444 -4
3) lougreen03 427 -21
4) 02 Earnhardt 419 -29
5) SupplySgt 415 -33
6) Cowboy6622 405 -43
7) bblackstone 84 400 -48
8) STUMPMI 400 -48
9) JuniorCar 393 -55
10) zjerry 393 -55
11) silverfish33 386 -62
12) montecarlo3831 370 -78
13) 03JGMonte 332 -116
14) 77GP 319 -129
15) adgm2005 306 -142
16) butch049 251 -197
17) SupersportSteve 243 -205
18) RocknSS04 220 -228
19) Ricks 2006 SS 213 -235
20) 01 Monte SS 68
21) SSmeansSuperSexy 60
22) 06 Mistre SS 45
And all of that will culminate in a climatic, spontaneous, exciting, 400 mile race at Pocono, where our defending winner is...
Defending Winner zjerry
zjerry picked some solid teams last year, yet had all kinds of bad luck with them. He won Pocono and stuck it out. He moved on to finish 4th in the overall points last year, and his momentum really kick started with that Pocono win. Can someone else with bad luck, perhaps Jerry or Hunter Smith, kick off a mid season run for a good position at Pocono? They could... but there are so many more people to beat this year. And with so many of us picking so similarly, these races are really tough to win this year.
Pocono History
This race has been shortened from a 500 miler to a 400 miler this year. This will be the first schedule 400 mile race in the tracks history, which goes back to 1974. The shortened races didn't make any more excitement at California.
For such a boring race, we have a lot of things to keep in mind this week...
As I'm going to get into later, we have a fresh paving job this year. Fresh pavement means single grove race tracks, tougher passing, and usually less cautions. But we also have faster speeds with the fresh pavement as well. That is going to be important.
Since this is a new pavement job, there will be a two day test beginning Wednesday.
Summer Snoozefest is FINALLY Here!!!
Face it, June isn't a good time for NASCAR races. Pocono, Michigan, the road course in Sonoma, and the boring new Kentucky line the schedule for the month. The next exciting race is actually Daytona in July! With this years caution numbers being down 30% (which is really a trend in cautions dropping over the last 2-3 years, or since the inception of the COT), these upcoming races being known for long green runs, heck we might just have a caution free race this month.
And to make matters better, if any of you pay attention to new pavement jobs, they generally produce 1 grove racing because the trakcs aren't weathered and rubbered in to have multiple groves. Passing is tough. What this means is that for the next two races, both with new paving jobs, will probably have single grove racing, long green runs, with track position, caution (fi there are any) strategy, pit strategy, and qualifying will be of the utmost importance.
Whiel this race has a reputation for boredom, it has produced some really odd excitement.
Wildlife likes Pocono. Rabbits and chickens have gotten on the track, causing cautions. One year, Neil Bonnet creamed a deer in practice and had to have the front end of his Mercury rebuilt. Anotehr year, a drunk fan ran across the back stretch and was later caught by police in a swamp.
It has had some good excitement as of late...
Kasey Kahne nearly went over the wall in 2010....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aYSJ4HKu0k
Elliott Sadler knocked an engine out in the other Pocono race that year.... the crash test data from that crash said it was the hardest crash in the modern history of NASCAR. And Sadler didn't even go to the hospital.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQXugT11Js8
Years ago, Steve Park and Dale Jr had a big crash here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zeMHCVgklo
It has had some good finishes, with Jeremy Mayfield intimidating the Intimidator in 2000.... that's waht crack does for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sikas9A7Z5A
This Week at Pocono
There will be a two day test here at Pocono beginning on Wednesday. Testing is really a lot tougher than most people think. There are a ton of extra sensors. There are special test engines with extra sensors. There are transmission gears/rear end gears to figure out. There are suspension issues to figure out. Tires have to be figured out. It's a lot of work. What all of that means is the biggest teams, with the most employees to send to Pennsylvania, will best spread out their resources, their regular guys wont' be as fatigued come race time, and they'll have more qualified people to work the computers and analyze the information. Plus, their test software is better.
Also, this year the races have been shortened to 400 miels. I don't think that did a lot for the California race... which was also shorteend, just 100 laps less boredom, but it might surprise me. Means attrition won't be quite as bad... but on the other side of that....
Repaved tracks produce a copule of things. Grip is high, which means more corner speed, and more corner speed means more time to build up straightaway speed and really pull some miles per hour and rpms into those corners. That means teams like Jeff Gordon, the only Hendrick team to haev engine failure,s may have a problem. Teams like MWR which ahs blown a few engines this year may be teams to avoid. Toyotas in general have blown engines on long, big, fast tracks this year. so watch out! Teams like Hendrick and Roush may be the dominant set this week with their vast resources and durable engines.
The other thing about 400 miles also comes down to weather. It seems like at least 50% of the time we come to Pocono, rain is a factor. Qualifying, practice, something. Sometimes a washout means a competition caution early in the race. I don't know about PA, but in North Carolina this year, we ahve had above average rain falls. It makes driving your classic car more of a gamble with weather these days. A shorter race means NASCAR can call this thing at halfway 20 laps shorter than they used to be able to. That menas a late race pit road strategy, staying or coming in at the right time, and making calls weather-related could be a big deal in winning htis race on Sunday. Watch the weather, Fantasy Pickers.
With long green runs being a norm this year, cautions are down 30%, I would expect Pocono to be a lot like Fontana. It may be a perfect race, barring weather. Perfect race, however, means no cautions or mistakes to bring out the yellow. It could mean "competition" debris cautions. With that in mind, few cautions will be the norm more than likely, meaning not much caution time to re-tune that car. It also means you need that car that handles on a long green run, it means you need to qualify well, and not make mistakes during the race on the track and especially on pit road.
Repaved tracks produce a lot of speed, but they tend to be known for being "1 groved." The track hasn't aged, rubbered in, or weather in. New tracks usually produce fast, 1 groove racing. Passing will be tough. Qualifying will be of the utmost importance this week at Pocono.
For such a boring race, there is a lot going on this weekend!!!
CHEVROLET TEAMS
Hendrick Motorsports
We're seeing Hendrick do something they're well known for doing, and it's a trend in NASCAR. when a team gets going hot on a streak like this, they get going, especially Hendrick. With Jimmie running so well, and Hendrick winning the last 3-5 races (depending on how you could the All-Star, they have been RED HOT this last month. Momentum is important, and Hendrick has it all right now! Jimmie is tough to beat at Pocono every year, but this year he is hitting a stride as we go into summer.
Even on his bad years, Pocono is a good Jeff Gordon track. But this year, his bad luck is borderline humorous. It seems like it may be turning around though.... so we'll see.
Earnhardt Jr has never won at Pocono, but he has had his good runs hear and ran good here twice last year.
Kahne has won at Pocono, and he seems to be finding his stride and settling into that Hendrick team right now.
Stewart-Haas
The thing with Stewart is that he either wins or runs like crap. at Pocono, the trend is more contend for wins and win races. Newman wins his 1-2 races a year and runs like crap everywhere else. Figure out which one it will be at Pocono.
Richard Childress Racing
Harvick is starting to hit a stride this year. He didn't really have it early in the year, but he is getting it now. He has generally run well at Pocono, and he seems to like going fast. This track will be fast this year, so I think Happy will run pretty darned well at Pocono.
Harvick is also coming off a career best race at Dover.
FORD TEAMS
Roush Fenway
I wonder if Biffle was trying a little soemthing for the chase there at Dover. He pretty well knows he has made the chase, Dover is a chase track, so why not try stuff out? Kenseth ran very well there, but no one had anything for that #48. Kenseth is so-so at Pocono... Ford's generally need banking to go fast. Biffle has won here... he snapped a long winless streak by Ford at this track a couple of years back. So we will just have to see how he does there this year.
Edwards is cursed by that "Superbowl losers" curse... where the team that loses the Superbowl plays like crap the next year. well, the guy who runs 2nd in the championship runs like crap the next year. Plus, dating back to even when Jeff Burton drove that car in the 90s and 2000s, everytime the 99 switches sponsors, it runs like crap. When Jeff Burton switched from Exide to Citgo, he ran like junk and ended up getting fired. When Edwards switched from Office Depot to Aflac, he ran like crap. When he went from Aflac to Fastenal, he is now running like crap.
Plus, that Subway car is cursed. He always runs like crap in it. I don't know which car he is driving this week though... mayeb the old Fastenal job. What makes ti worse is that he blew up in this race last year.
Petty Motorsports
This race runs like a roadcourse, and Ambrose and Almirola are good road course racers. They might be good dark horses depeending on how those power plants hold up.
TOYOTA TEAMS
Joe Gibbs Racing
Busch has great stats at Pocono and runs well here, but I wonder about those Toyota engines. They had a few minor issues last year, and they seemed to have had some minor issues this year too. Hamlin has won here a few times and is great at Pocono, so watch out since Hamster is good this year.
Michael Waltrip Racing
They have just had too many engine issues... Mark Martin once, Bowyer, Truex is due... I just don't think I can stand by the durablity of a MWR car this week.
DODGE TEAM
Penske
Keselowski won last year, but arguably that was with a pit call in a rain delay that bought the track position. So watch that strategy this year. Keselowski is consistently becoming a better driver and will probably be a title contender in the next year or so, especially since they're going to Ford and will have all that data with Roush to share. That's going to be cool next year.
This is the point in the year where I wonder just how strongly Dodge will support this team knowing they're losing them next year. With all the testing going on, how strongly will Dodge back the team? It's going to be interesting.
My Picks
Wow, tough one to pick this week. And I want to win races and get some momentum going in the points again. I think I'm going to try going the weay a lot of our winners are going lately... go with those Chevrolets. Chevrolets are the most dominant car in the sport and have been for 10-20 years now. So lets try that strategy out....
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Tony Stewart
3) Kasey Kahne
Lets roll, beyotches. Of Course, with the testing and all coming up, I'm liable to go swap one of these guys for a Ford. But Ford has had more issues with their durability than other teams and have for years. You rarely see any Chevrolet team have an issue, unless thier name is something like Kurt Busch. So lets see how this new strategy works out.
A big congrats to our veteran lougreen03, who won the Dover race with an impressive 1-2-3 pick!!! Congrats, buddy1! That was good for his first win of the season! A congrats as well to Carl, who holds the overall lead, but Brnet closed it up a bit and retook 2nd palce. Those two are running away a bit from the rest of us. There is still a lot of racing left in the season though!
Congrats as well to MCF Rookie Leprechaun93, who took the Segment 2 points lead as we head into Pocono, which is the halfway race of the segmetn... well ,techinically halfway at Pocono is halfway in the segment....
1) carlm54stl 1394 Leader
2) JuniorCar 1359 -35
3) bblackstone 1321 -73
4) SupplySgt 1319 -75
5) Cowboy6622 1315 -79
6) lougreen03 1313 -81
7) montecarlo3831 1307 -87
8) zJerry 1305 -89
9) Leprechaun93 1299 -95
10) 02 Earnhardt 1285 -109
11) 03JGMonte 1217 -177
12) butch049 1196 -208
13) 77GP 1170 -234
14) RocknSS04 1142 -262
15) silverfish 1125 -279
16) STUMPMI 1049 -345
17) SuperSportSteve 928
18) 01 Monte SS 908
19) adgm2005 778
20) 06 Mistre SS 428
21) Teacher 306
22) Ricks 2006 SS 213
23) yutzybrian 211
24) Racebound2 83
25) Possum 77
26) 04chevyboy 76
27) Emily666 61
28) SSMeansSuperSexy 60
29) mousehouse 54
Segment 2 Points
1) Leprechuan 93 448 Leader
2) carlm54stl 444 -4
3) lougreen03 427 -21
4) 02 Earnhardt 419 -29
5) SupplySgt 415 -33
6) Cowboy6622 405 -43
7) bblackstone 84 400 -48
8) STUMPMI 400 -48
9) JuniorCar 393 -55
10) zjerry 393 -55
11) silverfish33 386 -62
12) montecarlo3831 370 -78
13) 03JGMonte 332 -116
14) 77GP 319 -129
15) adgm2005 306 -142
16) butch049 251 -197
17) SupersportSteve 243 -205
18) RocknSS04 220 -228
19) Ricks 2006 SS 213 -235
20) 01 Monte SS 68
21) SSmeansSuperSexy 60
22) 06 Mistre SS 45
And all of that will culminate in a climatic, spontaneous, exciting, 400 mile race at Pocono, where our defending winner is...
Defending Winner zjerry
zjerry picked some solid teams last year, yet had all kinds of bad luck with them. He won Pocono and stuck it out. He moved on to finish 4th in the overall points last year, and his momentum really kick started with that Pocono win. Can someone else with bad luck, perhaps Jerry or Hunter Smith, kick off a mid season run for a good position at Pocono? They could... but there are so many more people to beat this year. And with so many of us picking so similarly, these races are really tough to win this year.
Pocono History
This race has been shortened from a 500 miler to a 400 miler this year. This will be the first schedule 400 mile race in the tracks history, which goes back to 1974. The shortened races didn't make any more excitement at California.
For such a boring race, we have a lot of things to keep in mind this week...
As I'm going to get into later, we have a fresh paving job this year. Fresh pavement means single grove race tracks, tougher passing, and usually less cautions. But we also have faster speeds with the fresh pavement as well. That is going to be important.
Since this is a new pavement job, there will be a two day test beginning Wednesday.
Summer Snoozefest is FINALLY Here!!!
Face it, June isn't a good time for NASCAR races. Pocono, Michigan, the road course in Sonoma, and the boring new Kentucky line the schedule for the month. The next exciting race is actually Daytona in July! With this years caution numbers being down 30% (which is really a trend in cautions dropping over the last 2-3 years, or since the inception of the COT), these upcoming races being known for long green runs, heck we might just have a caution free race this month.
And to make matters better, if any of you pay attention to new pavement jobs, they generally produce 1 grove racing because the trakcs aren't weathered and rubbered in to have multiple groves. Passing is tough. What this means is that for the next two races, both with new paving jobs, will probably have single grove racing, long green runs, with track position, caution (fi there are any) strategy, pit strategy, and qualifying will be of the utmost importance.
Whiel this race has a reputation for boredom, it has produced some really odd excitement.
Wildlife likes Pocono. Rabbits and chickens have gotten on the track, causing cautions. One year, Neil Bonnet creamed a deer in practice and had to have the front end of his Mercury rebuilt. Anotehr year, a drunk fan ran across the back stretch and was later caught by police in a swamp.
It has had some good excitement as of late...
Kasey Kahne nearly went over the wall in 2010....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aYSJ4HKu0k
Elliott Sadler knocked an engine out in the other Pocono race that year.... the crash test data from that crash said it was the hardest crash in the modern history of NASCAR. And Sadler didn't even go to the hospital.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQXugT11Js8
Years ago, Steve Park and Dale Jr had a big crash here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zeMHCVgklo
It has had some good finishes, with Jeremy Mayfield intimidating the Intimidator in 2000.... that's waht crack does for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sikas9A7Z5A
This Week at Pocono
There will be a two day test here at Pocono beginning on Wednesday. Testing is really a lot tougher than most people think. There are a ton of extra sensors. There are special test engines with extra sensors. There are transmission gears/rear end gears to figure out. There are suspension issues to figure out. Tires have to be figured out. It's a lot of work. What all of that means is the biggest teams, with the most employees to send to Pennsylvania, will best spread out their resources, their regular guys wont' be as fatigued come race time, and they'll have more qualified people to work the computers and analyze the information. Plus, their test software is better.
Also, this year the races have been shortened to 400 miels. I don't think that did a lot for the California race... which was also shorteend, just 100 laps less boredom, but it might surprise me. Means attrition won't be quite as bad... but on the other side of that....
Repaved tracks produce a copule of things. Grip is high, which means more corner speed, and more corner speed means more time to build up straightaway speed and really pull some miles per hour and rpms into those corners. That means teams like Jeff Gordon, the only Hendrick team to haev engine failure,s may have a problem. Teams like MWR which ahs blown a few engines this year may be teams to avoid. Toyotas in general have blown engines on long, big, fast tracks this year. so watch out! Teams like Hendrick and Roush may be the dominant set this week with their vast resources and durable engines.
The other thing about 400 miles also comes down to weather. It seems like at least 50% of the time we come to Pocono, rain is a factor. Qualifying, practice, something. Sometimes a washout means a competition caution early in the race. I don't know about PA, but in North Carolina this year, we ahve had above average rain falls. It makes driving your classic car more of a gamble with weather these days. A shorter race means NASCAR can call this thing at halfway 20 laps shorter than they used to be able to. That menas a late race pit road strategy, staying or coming in at the right time, and making calls weather-related could be a big deal in winning htis race on Sunday. Watch the weather, Fantasy Pickers.
With long green runs being a norm this year, cautions are down 30%, I would expect Pocono to be a lot like Fontana. It may be a perfect race, barring weather. Perfect race, however, means no cautions or mistakes to bring out the yellow. It could mean "competition" debris cautions. With that in mind, few cautions will be the norm more than likely, meaning not much caution time to re-tune that car. It also means you need that car that handles on a long green run, it means you need to qualify well, and not make mistakes during the race on the track and especially on pit road.
Repaved tracks produce a lot of speed, but they tend to be known for being "1 groved." The track hasn't aged, rubbered in, or weather in. New tracks usually produce fast, 1 groove racing. Passing will be tough. Qualifying will be of the utmost importance this week at Pocono.
For such a boring race, there is a lot going on this weekend!!!
CHEVROLET TEAMS
Hendrick Motorsports
We're seeing Hendrick do something they're well known for doing, and it's a trend in NASCAR. when a team gets going hot on a streak like this, they get going, especially Hendrick. With Jimmie running so well, and Hendrick winning the last 3-5 races (depending on how you could the All-Star, they have been RED HOT this last month. Momentum is important, and Hendrick has it all right now! Jimmie is tough to beat at Pocono every year, but this year he is hitting a stride as we go into summer.
Even on his bad years, Pocono is a good Jeff Gordon track. But this year, his bad luck is borderline humorous. It seems like it may be turning around though.... so we'll see.
Earnhardt Jr has never won at Pocono, but he has had his good runs hear and ran good here twice last year.
Kahne has won at Pocono, and he seems to be finding his stride and settling into that Hendrick team right now.
Stewart-Haas
The thing with Stewart is that he either wins or runs like crap. at Pocono, the trend is more contend for wins and win races. Newman wins his 1-2 races a year and runs like crap everywhere else. Figure out which one it will be at Pocono.
Richard Childress Racing
Harvick is starting to hit a stride this year. He didn't really have it early in the year, but he is getting it now. He has generally run well at Pocono, and he seems to like going fast. This track will be fast this year, so I think Happy will run pretty darned well at Pocono.
Harvick is also coming off a career best race at Dover.
FORD TEAMS
Roush Fenway
I wonder if Biffle was trying a little soemthing for the chase there at Dover. He pretty well knows he has made the chase, Dover is a chase track, so why not try stuff out? Kenseth ran very well there, but no one had anything for that #48. Kenseth is so-so at Pocono... Ford's generally need banking to go fast. Biffle has won here... he snapped a long winless streak by Ford at this track a couple of years back. So we will just have to see how he does there this year.
Edwards is cursed by that "Superbowl losers" curse... where the team that loses the Superbowl plays like crap the next year. well, the guy who runs 2nd in the championship runs like crap the next year. Plus, dating back to even when Jeff Burton drove that car in the 90s and 2000s, everytime the 99 switches sponsors, it runs like crap. When Jeff Burton switched from Exide to Citgo, he ran like junk and ended up getting fired. When Edwards switched from Office Depot to Aflac, he ran like crap. When he went from Aflac to Fastenal, he is now running like crap.
Plus, that Subway car is cursed. He always runs like crap in it. I don't know which car he is driving this week though... mayeb the old Fastenal job. What makes ti worse is that he blew up in this race last year.
Petty Motorsports
This race runs like a roadcourse, and Ambrose and Almirola are good road course racers. They might be good dark horses depeending on how those power plants hold up.
TOYOTA TEAMS
Joe Gibbs Racing
Busch has great stats at Pocono and runs well here, but I wonder about those Toyota engines. They had a few minor issues last year, and they seemed to have had some minor issues this year too. Hamlin has won here a few times and is great at Pocono, so watch out since Hamster is good this year.
Michael Waltrip Racing
They have just had too many engine issues... Mark Martin once, Bowyer, Truex is due... I just don't think I can stand by the durablity of a MWR car this week.
DODGE TEAM
Penske
Keselowski won last year, but arguably that was with a pit call in a rain delay that bought the track position. So watch that strategy this year. Keselowski is consistently becoming a better driver and will probably be a title contender in the next year or so, especially since they're going to Ford and will have all that data with Roush to share. That's going to be cool next year.
This is the point in the year where I wonder just how strongly Dodge will support this team knowing they're losing them next year. With all the testing going on, how strongly will Dodge back the team? It's going to be interesting.
My Picks
Wow, tough one to pick this week. And I want to win races and get some momentum going in the points again. I think I'm going to try going the weay a lot of our winners are going lately... go with those Chevrolets. Chevrolets are the most dominant car in the sport and have been for 10-20 years now. So lets try that strategy out....
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Tony Stewart
3) Kasey Kahne
Lets roll, beyotches. Of Course, with the testing and all coming up, I'm liable to go swap one of these guys for a Ford. But Ford has had more issues with their durability than other teams and have for years. You rarely see any Chevrolet team have an issue, unless thier name is something like Kurt Busch. So lets see how this new strategy works out.
Last edited by Cowboy6622; 06-08-2012 at 04:36 PM.
#7
06-04-2012, 07:11 PM
I finally got a rundown done... I didn't realize until I made them that I copied bblackstone. I'm more liable to edit... you know me, I can't resist having a Furd on my team.... but I'm going to try out goign all bow tie for a week and see how it works right now. It's Monday... lots of testing and practice going on to see how things go right now.
#9
06-04-2012, 08:50 PM
#10
06-04-2012, 08:52 PM
