Picks/Loudon/SunAfternoon
#1
07-07-2013, 05:13 PM
Picks/Loudon/SunAfternoon
No rundown yet... I'll get to it sometime soon, maybe Monday.
Points and Congratulatory Remarks
First, I want to congratulate Dave, who put together an excellent Daytona team and won Segment 2 at the last minute! That guy has been on fire lately!
He also only won with 877 points, which may be the lowest Segment win total ever... I'd have to check that. With some extra unpredictability in the mix this year, it seems you can win a segment averaging just 97 points. Usually, segment winners average 105-110 points per race. The overall lead is being held with a relatively low number at this point in the season, just 97.7 points average.... last year, the average was over 100 per race. Races like Michigan where most of us fell victim to a bad day for Hendrick, and the fact that we have had three unpredictable restricter plate races this year factor into these things.
Congrats to zJerry for winning the Daytona race as well... great picks, buddy!
I'm dreading posting the poitns, but I will do it. I am anticipating points penalties from NASCAR to many major teams over illegal roof flaps... 15 cars had them, and very few of you had picks that didn't have illegal flaps. I kind of hope NASCAR does nothing so I don't have to make major changes to the points.... but oh well.
As it stands now, the points look like this
1) Leprechaun93 1759 Leader (3 wins)
2) Cowboy6622 1759 Leader (1 win)
3) MnteCrloSS47 1718 -41
4) monte carlo 3831 1711 -48
5) STUMPMI 1708 -51
6) 02 Earnhardt 1703 -56
7) Ricks 2006 SS 1671 -88
8) butch049 1654 -105 (1 win, 1 2nd place finish)
9) BlazedSS 1654 -105 (1 win, no 2nd place finishes)
10) SSmeansSuperSexy 1648 -111
11) SupplySgt 1646 -113
12) 77GP 1639 -120
13) zjerry 1583 -176
14) silverfish3 1578 -181
15) carlm54stl 1553 -206
16) 03JGMonte 1512 -247
17) RocknSS04 1469 -290
18) 05MistreSS 869
19) KCFITz78 324
This Week at Loudon
Now halfway through the year, we're visiting a track that we will visit twice this year... seems screwed up, but that's the truth. It's flat, it's 1 mile, and I have no idea what is magic about it. Sometimes, I despise Bruton Smith for dropping North Wilkesboro in the 90's for this place. The track offers virtually no excitement. It's the only track in modern NASCAR history to have been dominated from flag to flag by 1 car, Jeff Burton, who won here in 2000 leading every single lap. Quite frankly, we don't have an exciting race to look forward to.
This track tends to cater to the strong teams every year like many do. And Ford's suck here. with that being said, you can expect a Chevy-Toyota showdown, but most likely, you will see a Hendrick-Gibbs showdown too.
TOYOTA TEAMS
Joe Gibbs Racing
I would expect to see the Gibbs cars run very strong this week. Kenseth has never won here, but he still ran well at Martinsville earlier. I think with teammates like Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch behind him, he will do well here.
Denny Hamlin is excellent on flat tracks and New Hampshire fits the bill. However, his luck is just awful and I don't know that it will turn around.
Kyle Busch is alright here, but he's just never been lucky at New Hampshire.
Michael Waltrip Racing
Clint Bowyer is excellent at this track, and won here twice with Childress. I would expect to see Bowyer on top of his game now that he is 2nd in the points and had a good run at Daytona nad Kentucky to bounce from.
Truex might be alright, but I just don't think he'll quite compete with the Hendrick/Gibbs powerhouse this week like Bowyer will
CHEVROLET TEAMS
Hendrick
Last year, with Hamlin leading, the Hendrick 4 were lined up 2-3-4-5 behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing this year. However, Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahen can't get lucky, and Dale Jr just isn't having the year he had last year.
But the 48 is just so on top of the game... Jimmie is dominating these races but the late race restarts just get him. I think he might be putting all of that behind him, like he always does, and a Daytona win gives him a springboard to one of his great tracks.
Stewart Haas
This team ran 1-2 here a couple of years back but iddn't show mcuh strength last year. This team seems to be rounding a corner. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised by either team dominating, but they just don't consistenly run well here like the Hendrick and Gibbs cars do.
Furniture Row
Kurt Busch won this race with Penske and had consistent great finisehs. He wasn't good here with Phoenix Racing, but I think with Furntirue Row, he might be back on his game and might win some more lobsters.
Childress Racing
Harvick is the only guy at this team worth pickign right now. Harvick is pretty good and a threat anywhere you go. Look out for him this week
Earnhardt Ganassi
While Montoya is good on these flatter tracks, I think he is still a long shot just because he is Montoya. He could be worth a bet if you're looking to make a long shot and see if you can gain poitns in an upset though. McMurray will probably be better in Indy.
FORD TEAMS
Don't pick Ford's at small, flat tracks. That is a rule. They suck here.
Penske
With that statement about Ford being made, the only team here that historically will stand a chance will be Penske. They were good here last year with Brad KEselowski, but they don't have that mojo like they did last year either. Logano won here in '09 but that was a rain and fuel mileage call more than anything. I see them as long shots.
Roush
This team will be in survival mode for a while... New Hampshire... Indy.... they're next best chance is Watkins Glen with Ambrose. Greg Biffle has won New Hampshire a couple of times in years when Roush was in tis prime and dominating the series. That order isn't in right now. They will be good when we get back to some traditional D shaped ovals and the 1.5 mile races in teh chase, but not at New Hampshire.
Petty
This team has lost that early year magic and will be back in survival mode at New Hampshire, I believe.
My Picks
1) Clint Bowyer... taking a chance on that TRD Power!
2) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.... this would be like the 4th time in Fantasy History I've picked him....
3) Kurt Busch.... the rising man in the power rankings... top 10 in points, good at Loudon, lets get it done!
Points and Congratulatory Remarks
First, I want to congratulate Dave, who put together an excellent Daytona team and won Segment 2 at the last minute! That guy has been on fire lately!
He also only won with 877 points, which may be the lowest Segment win total ever... I'd have to check that. With some extra unpredictability in the mix this year, it seems you can win a segment averaging just 97 points. Usually, segment winners average 105-110 points per race. The overall lead is being held with a relatively low number at this point in the season, just 97.7 points average.... last year, the average was over 100 per race. Races like Michigan where most of us fell victim to a bad day for Hendrick, and the fact that we have had three unpredictable restricter plate races this year factor into these things.
Congrats to zJerry for winning the Daytona race as well... great picks, buddy!
I'm dreading posting the poitns, but I will do it. I am anticipating points penalties from NASCAR to many major teams over illegal roof flaps... 15 cars had them, and very few of you had picks that didn't have illegal flaps. I kind of hope NASCAR does nothing so I don't have to make major changes to the points.... but oh well.
As it stands now, the points look like this
1) Leprechaun93 1759 Leader (3 wins)
2) Cowboy6622 1759 Leader (1 win)
3) MnteCrloSS47 1718 -41
4) monte carlo 3831 1711 -48
5) STUMPMI 1708 -51
6) 02 Earnhardt 1703 -56
7) Ricks 2006 SS 1671 -88
8) butch049 1654 -105 (1 win, 1 2nd place finish)
9) BlazedSS 1654 -105 (1 win, no 2nd place finishes)
10) SSmeansSuperSexy 1648 -111
11) SupplySgt 1646 -113
12) 77GP 1639 -120
13) zjerry 1583 -176
14) silverfish3 1578 -181
15) carlm54stl 1553 -206
16) 03JGMonte 1512 -247
17) RocknSS04 1469 -290
18) 05MistreSS 869
19) KCFITz78 324
This Week at Loudon
Now halfway through the year, we're visiting a track that we will visit twice this year... seems screwed up, but that's the truth. It's flat, it's 1 mile, and I have no idea what is magic about it. Sometimes, I despise Bruton Smith for dropping North Wilkesboro in the 90's for this place. The track offers virtually no excitement. It's the only track in modern NASCAR history to have been dominated from flag to flag by 1 car, Jeff Burton, who won here in 2000 leading every single lap. Quite frankly, we don't have an exciting race to look forward to.
This track tends to cater to the strong teams every year like many do. And Ford's suck here. with that being said, you can expect a Chevy-Toyota showdown, but most likely, you will see a Hendrick-Gibbs showdown too.
TOYOTA TEAMS
Joe Gibbs Racing
I would expect to see the Gibbs cars run very strong this week. Kenseth has never won here, but he still ran well at Martinsville earlier. I think with teammates like Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch behind him, he will do well here.
Denny Hamlin is excellent on flat tracks and New Hampshire fits the bill. However, his luck is just awful and I don't know that it will turn around.
Kyle Busch is alright here, but he's just never been lucky at New Hampshire.
Michael Waltrip Racing
Clint Bowyer is excellent at this track, and won here twice with Childress. I would expect to see Bowyer on top of his game now that he is 2nd in the points and had a good run at Daytona nad Kentucky to bounce from.
Truex might be alright, but I just don't think he'll quite compete with the Hendrick/Gibbs powerhouse this week like Bowyer will
CHEVROLET TEAMS
Hendrick
Last year, with Hamlin leading, the Hendrick 4 were lined up 2-3-4-5 behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing this year. However, Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahen can't get lucky, and Dale Jr just isn't having the year he had last year.
But the 48 is just so on top of the game... Jimmie is dominating these races but the late race restarts just get him. I think he might be putting all of that behind him, like he always does, and a Daytona win gives him a springboard to one of his great tracks.
Stewart Haas
This team ran 1-2 here a couple of years back but iddn't show mcuh strength last year. This team seems to be rounding a corner. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised by either team dominating, but they just don't consistenly run well here like the Hendrick and Gibbs cars do.
Furniture Row
Kurt Busch won this race with Penske and had consistent great finisehs. He wasn't good here with Phoenix Racing, but I think with Furntirue Row, he might be back on his game and might win some more lobsters.
Childress Racing
Harvick is the only guy at this team worth pickign right now. Harvick is pretty good and a threat anywhere you go. Look out for him this week
Earnhardt Ganassi
While Montoya is good on these flatter tracks, I think he is still a long shot just because he is Montoya. He could be worth a bet if you're looking to make a long shot and see if you can gain poitns in an upset though. McMurray will probably be better in Indy.
FORD TEAMS
Don't pick Ford's at small, flat tracks. That is a rule. They suck here.
Penske
With that statement about Ford being made, the only team here that historically will stand a chance will be Penske. They were good here last year with Brad KEselowski, but they don't have that mojo like they did last year either. Logano won here in '09 but that was a rain and fuel mileage call more than anything. I see them as long shots.
Roush
This team will be in survival mode for a while... New Hampshire... Indy.... they're next best chance is Watkins Glen with Ambrose. Greg Biffle has won New Hampshire a couple of times in years when Roush was in tis prime and dominating the series. That order isn't in right now. They will be good when we get back to some traditional D shaped ovals and the 1.5 mile races in teh chase, but not at New Hampshire.
Petty
This team has lost that early year magic and will be back in survival mode at New Hampshire, I believe.
My Picks
1) Clint Bowyer... taking a chance on that TRD Power!
2) Dale Earnhardt, Jr.... this would be like the 4th time in Fantasy History I've picked him....
3) Kurt Busch.... the rising man in the power rankings... top 10 in points, good at Loudon, lets get it done!
Last edited by Cowboy6622; 07-13-2013 at 03:59 PM.
#2
07-07-2013, 05:21 PM
Thanks Duane for all you do to keep this league up and running properly!
I always look forward to your run downs and Stats!
48
78
88
I always look forward to your run downs and Stats!
48
78
88
Last edited by STUMPMI; 07-07-2013 at 05:27 PM.
#4
07-07-2013, 07:09 PM
Dave, you found a set that works and now you're sticking to them, huh? LoL.
Jerry, it was great to see you at Ted Drewwes to. Loved that custard there.
(By the way, here on the east coast, we eat ice cream or milkshakes... out west, I noticed there was a lot of custard. What's the difference?)
Jerry, it was great to see you at Ted Drewwes to. Loved that custard there.
(By the way, here on the east coast, we eat ice cream or milkshakes... out west, I noticed there was a lot of custard. What's the difference?)
#8
07-08-2013, 03:49 PM
1. #29 Kevin Harvick
2. #78 Kurt Busch
3. #14 "Smoke"<center>
2. #78 Kurt Busch
3. #14 "Smoke"<center>
Last edited by carlm54stl; 07-08-2013 at 03:54 PM.
#10
07-09-2013, 04:56 PM
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Busch
2 of them thar TRD cars and a Chevrolet
Good run down Duane, I am ready to get on top of this new segment and start gaining some much needed points. Didn't Carl come back from more than 120 or was it much earlier than now?
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Busch
2 of them thar TRD cars and a Chevrolet
Good run down Duane, I am ready to get on top of this new segment and start gaining some much needed points. Didn't Carl come back from more than 120 or was it much earlier than now?