> Scientists predict harsher winters <
> Scientists predict harsher winters <
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View PhotoChicago (AFP) - A warmer Arctic could permanently affect the pattern of the high-altitude polar jet stream, resulting in longer and colder winters over North America and northern Europe, US scientists say.
The jet stream, a ribbon of high altitude, high-speed wind in northern latitudes that blows from west to east, is formed when the cold Arctic air clashes with warmer air from further south.
The greater the difference in temperature, the faster the jet stream moves.
According to Jennifer Francis, a climate expert at Rutgers University, the Arctic air has warmed in recent years as a result of melting polar ice caps, meaning there is now less of a difference in temperatures when it hits air from lower latitudes.
"The jet stream is a very fast moving river of air over our head," she said Saturday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
"But over the past two decades the jet stream has weakened. This is something we can measure," she said.
As a result, instead of circling the earth in the far north, the jet stream has begun to meander, like a river heading off course.
This has brought chilly Arctic weather further south than normal, and warmer temperatures up north. Perhaps most disturbingly, it remains in place for longer periods of time.
The United States is currently enduring an especially bitter winter, with the midwestern and southern US states experiencing unusually low temperatures.
In contrast, far northern regions like Alaska are going through an unusually warm winter this year.
This suggests "that weather patterns are changing," Francis said. "We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently."
Temperatures in the Arctic have been rising "two to three times faster than the rest of the planet," said James Overland, a weather expert with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Francis says it is premature to blame humans for these changes.
"Our data to look at this effect is very short and so it is hard to get very clear signal," she said.
"But as we have more data I do think we will start to see the influence of climate change," she said.
- Dire impact on agriculture -
The meandering jet steam phenomenon, sometimes called "Santa's Revenge", remains a controversial idea.
"There is evidence for and against it," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snowland Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
But he said rising Arctic temperatures are directly linked to melting ice caps.
"The sea ice cover acts as a lid which separates the ocean from a colder atmosphere," Serreze told the conference.
But if the lid is removed, then warmth contained in the water rises into the atmosphere.
This warming trend and the shifting jet stream will have a dire impact on agriculture, especially in the farm-rich middle-latitudes in the United States.
"We are going to see changes in patterns of precipitation, of temperatures that might be linked to what is going on in the far north," said Serreze.
Jerry Hatfield, head of the National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment in the midwestern state of Iowa, warned that this is not a phenomenon that affects only the United States.
"Look around the world -- we produce the bulk of our crops around this mid-latitude area," he said.
The main impact on agriculture and livestock will not come from small temperature changes, but rather from temperature extremes and the weather patterns that hold them in place for longer periods of time.
Droughts and freezes are already having "a major impact on animal productivity, it influences meat production, milk and eggs production," he said.
Yahoo!
Source above
The jet stream, a ribbon of high altitude, high-speed wind in northern latitudes that blows from west to east, is formed when the cold Arctic air clashes with warmer air from further south.
The greater the difference in temperature, the faster the jet stream moves.
According to Jennifer Francis, a climate expert at Rutgers University, the Arctic air has warmed in recent years as a result of melting polar ice caps, meaning there is now less of a difference in temperatures when it hits air from lower latitudes.
"The jet stream is a very fast moving river of air over our head," she said Saturday at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
"But over the past two decades the jet stream has weakened. This is something we can measure," she said.
As a result, instead of circling the earth in the far north, the jet stream has begun to meander, like a river heading off course.
This has brought chilly Arctic weather further south than normal, and warmer temperatures up north. Perhaps most disturbingly, it remains in place for longer periods of time.
The United States is currently enduring an especially bitter winter, with the midwestern and southern US states experiencing unusually low temperatures.
In contrast, far northern regions like Alaska are going through an unusually warm winter this year.
This suggests "that weather patterns are changing," Francis said. "We can expect more of the same and we can expect it to happen more frequently."
Temperatures in the Arctic have been rising "two to three times faster than the rest of the planet," said James Overland, a weather expert with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Francis says it is premature to blame humans for these changes.
"Our data to look at this effect is very short and so it is hard to get very clear signal," she said.
"But as we have more data I do think we will start to see the influence of climate change," she said.
- Dire impact on agriculture -
The meandering jet steam phenomenon, sometimes called "Santa's Revenge", remains a controversial idea.
"There is evidence for and against it," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snowland Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.
But he said rising Arctic temperatures are directly linked to melting ice caps.
"The sea ice cover acts as a lid which separates the ocean from a colder atmosphere," Serreze told the conference.
But if the lid is removed, then warmth contained in the water rises into the atmosphere.
This warming trend and the shifting jet stream will have a dire impact on agriculture, especially in the farm-rich middle-latitudes in the United States.
"We are going to see changes in patterns of precipitation, of temperatures that might be linked to what is going on in the far north," said Serreze.
Jerry Hatfield, head of the National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment in the midwestern state of Iowa, warned that this is not a phenomenon that affects only the United States.
"Look around the world -- we produce the bulk of our crops around this mid-latitude area," he said.
The main impact on agriculture and livestock will not come from small temperature changes, but rather from temperature extremes and the weather patterns that hold them in place for longer periods of time.
Droughts and freezes are already having "a major impact on animal productivity, it influences meat production, milk and eggs production," he said.
Yahoo!
Source above
Last edited by Space; Feb 17, 2014 at 05:41 AM.
I disagree.
Last year was one of the warmest/driest winters in history.
This year was harsher due to the Jet stream being so far south.
It depends year from year wherever the Jet Stream may fall. The Jet stream is something you can not predict years in advance as it moves Daily.
If anyone thinks the Jet stream can weaken or gain that much amount of strength, they really need to find a new career. TheJet streams can fluctuate in strength between 100-200mph but they never actually lose enough to change much.
The Jet stream IS becoming weaker year by year due to the earth spins slower as times moves on, but not enough to change the weather in our lifetime or even notice.
Last year was one of the warmest/driest winters in history.
This year was harsher due to the Jet stream being so far south.
It depends year from year wherever the Jet Stream may fall. The Jet stream is something you can not predict years in advance as it moves Daily.
If anyone thinks the Jet stream can weaken or gain that much amount of strength, they really need to find a new career. TheJet streams can fluctuate in strength between 100-200mph but they never actually lose enough to change much.
The Jet stream IS becoming weaker year by year due to the earth spins slower as times moves on, but not enough to change the weather in our lifetime or even notice.
Last edited by MnteCrloSS47; Feb 17, 2014 at 05:51 AM.
Summary of the Jet Stream and the weather it creates:
We cannot predict that years in Advance.
- The position of the jet stream over the US determines the type of weather we experience.
- If the polar front jet is situated significantly to the south of the US we will experience colder than average weather.
- If the polar front jet is situated to the north of the US we will experience warmer than average weather.
- If the polar front jet is situated over the US we will experience wetter and windier than average weather.
- If the polar front jet has a large amplification then cold air will travel further south than average and warm air will travel further north than average.
- The direction and angle of the jet stream arriving at the US will determine what source of air (i.e. cold, dry, warm, wet, from maritime or continental sources) the US experiences.
We cannot predict that years in Advance.
Here is the weather for the North Pole the next few days
Today Feb 17
2°F
-21°F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:10% Wind: SW at 1 mph Details
Tue Feb 18
-3°
-20°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:20% Wind: ENE at 2 mph Details
Wed Feb 19
-4°
-28°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:0% Wind: WNW at 1 mph Details
Thu Feb 20
-9°
-26°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:10% Wind: Calm Details
Fri Feb 21
-3°
-13°
Mostly Sunny
Please tell me how ice melts at below 0F temps daily. anyone?
It's all BS
Today Feb 17
2°F-21°F
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:10% Wind: SW at 1 mph Details
Tue Feb 18
-3°-20°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:20% Wind: ENE at 2 mph Details
Wed Feb 19
-4°-28°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:0% Wind: WNW at 1 mph Details
Thu Feb 20
-9°-26°
Partly Cloudy
Chance of snow:10% Wind: Calm Details
Fri Feb 21
-3°-13°
Mostly Sunny
Please tell me how ice melts at below 0F temps daily. anyone?
It's all BS
"Wish all SunShine & Happiness"
...Thanks `Devin for your posts/words on the weather predictions.It's a good debate & I am sure not versed on this topic.
Climate Change ? > Like `life > It's always changing 4-Sure
Time will reveal the truth > Facts - The Weather Wiz Daily Long Range Weather forecasts < Click (Your Choice : )
theweatherwiz.com/
The weather wiz is a site that shares scientifically predictions of long range future weather forecast to a high degree of accuracy. Between 83 and 87 percent ...Current Forecast - Weather Wiz School - About - Testimonials
Last edited by Space; Feb 17, 2014 at 06:05 AM.
Is our Planet dying ?
Study: Arctic getting darker, making Earth warmer < Click for more infor
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Arctic isn't nearly as bright and white as it used to be because of more ice melting in the ocean, and that's turning out to be a global problem, a new study says.
Associated Press 6 hours ago
Monte Of The Month -- August 2014
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 25,145
From: Southeast PA
In the fall they were saying that we were going to have a mild winter. Obviously they can't even get 3 months in advance correct.
The pattern of news is about how unreal and poor this winter has been. So everyone is going to jump on that and create buzz and stories.
I also don't believe it. We're allowed to have a tough storm once a decade without crying global warming
The pattern of news is about how unreal and poor this winter has been. So everyone is going to jump on that and create buzz and stories.
I also don't believe it. We're allowed to have a tough storm once a decade without crying global warming
Don't shoot the Mail - Net - Newsman > LOL
> `Mike,
- Is There Global Warming? The answer may not be what you ...
isthereglobalwarming.com/
There has now been over 17 years with no measurable atmospheric global ... wish toreally know what is going on with the theory of man made global warming ...
- Is there a scientific consensus on global warming? - Skeptical Science
www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-c...
Skeptical Science
That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from ... Of those signers holding the degree of PhD, 95% have now been ... Really? It was caught, we had thousands of Fake names on our voting list in one ...
- Can global warming be real if it's cold in the U.S.? Um… yes!
www.washingtonpost.com/.../can-global-warming-...
The Washington Post
Jan 6, 2014 - It's quite cold across much of the United States right now, thanks to the... 6) Yes, there is a theory for how global warming could cause severe ...
- Global warming controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy
Wikipedia
In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface ... Disputes over the key scientific facts of global warming are now more ..... scientific agreement that human-caused global warming is real and poses a serious concern.
Thanks Everyone for your posts/words on this debatable topic.
Time will reveal the truth ?
I think the Sharks are attacker humans because of what we are doing to our oceans with all the pollutions that we are dumping into our oceans. I've swam with the sharks since I was a little kid & they never once bothered me, but lately, they are attacking swimmer's & surfers +.. I notice all the garbage in our Ocean
Monday, February 17, 2014
U.S. #1 In Shark Attacks, Florida #1 In U.S.
Woman attacked by shark in Brevard County. Brevard Times / File photo.COCOA BEACH, Florida -- The International Shark Attack File (ISAF) released its 2013 Worldwide Shark Attack Summary today after investigating 125 alleged incidents of shark-human interaction occurring worldwide in 2013. 72 of those incidents were classified by ISAF as unprovoked shark attacks - down from 81 in 2012.
The United States had the most shark attacks world-wide at 47. Australia was second with 10. The 47 attacks in the United States was lower than the 2012 total of 54 recorded attacks (including Hawaii and Puerto Rico), the highest yearly total of the century, according to ISAF researchers from the University of Florida.
Florida had the most, and nearly half (23) of all unprovoked shark attacks in the United States. Hawaii had the second highest (13) number of shark attacks, followed by South Carolina with 6 attacks.
Within Florida, Volusia County had the highest number of shark attacks at 8. Volusia's southern neighbor, Brevard County, came in second with 3 shark attacks. ISAF says geographically adjacent counties located on the central east coast, just east of Orlando, have collectively recorded more than one-third (37%: 257 of 687 cases) of the entirety of Florida's shark-human interactions to date.
Researchers say that this high number of shark attacks around Florida's Space Coast is attributable to very high aquatic recreational utilization of their attractive beaches and waters by both Florida residents and tourists, especially surfers, and the rich nature of Florida's marine fauna.
Black Tip Shark. Photo Credit: NOAA
According to NOAA, the number one species for biting along the beaches on the U.S. East Coast is the blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus) in the top picture. The shark has black tips on its pectoral fins and grows to no more than about six feet.
FATALITIES:
Ten fatalities resulted from unprovoked attacks in 2013, up from the 2012 total of seven and above the 2003-2012 ten-year average of six fatalities per year. Fatalities were recorded in Australia (2), Réunion (2), Brazil (1), Diego Garcia (1), Hawaii (1), Jamaica (1), New Zealand (1), and South Africa (1).
The fatality rate in the U.S. was notably lower (2.1%) than that of rest of the world (36%), which researchers believe is likely reflective of the greater safety and medical capacity in areas of the U.S. where shark attacks historically occur.
Surfers and others participating in board sports (46% of cases: 48 incidents) were most often involved in these incidents in 2013. Less affected recreational user groups included swimmers/waders (31%) and divers (14%). Surfers have been the most-affected user group in recent years. Researchers say that this is the probable result of the large amount of time spent by these folks engaged in provocative activity (kicking of feet, splashing of hands, and "wipeouts") in areas frequented by sharks, the surf zone.
BREVARD COUNTY SHARK NEWS STORIES:
Florida Lifeguard Pulls Shark Back Into The Water!
Brevard Shark Fisherman Falls Into Water With Shark
Shark Attacks Woman In Cape Canaveral: VIDEO
Shark Attack In Melbourne, Florida
19-Year-Old Orlando Man Bitten By Shark In Brevard
Shark Bites Man's Hand in Melbourne Beach
Shark Attacks Teen Off Florida's Space Coast
Time will reveal the truth ?
I think the Sharks are attacker humans because of what we are doing to our oceans with all the pollutions that we are dumping into our oceans. I've swam with the sharks since I was a little kid & they never once bothered me
, but lately, they are attacking swimmer's & surfers +.. I notice all the garbage in our Ocean Monday, February 17, 2014
U.S. #1 In Shark Attacks, Florida #1 In U.S.
Woman attacked by shark in Brevard County. Brevard Times / File photo.COCOA BEACH, Florida -- The International Shark Attack File (ISAF) released its 2013 Worldwide Shark Attack Summary today after investigating 125 alleged incidents of shark-human interaction occurring worldwide in 2013. 72 of those incidents were classified by ISAF as unprovoked shark attacks - down from 81 in 2012.
The United States had the most shark attacks world-wide at 47. Australia was second with 10. The 47 attacks in the United States was lower than the 2012 total of 54 recorded attacks (including Hawaii and Puerto Rico), the highest yearly total of the century, according to ISAF researchers from the University of Florida.
Florida had the most, and nearly half (23) of all unprovoked shark attacks in the United States. Hawaii had the second highest (13) number of shark attacks, followed by South Carolina with 6 attacks.
Within Florida, Volusia County had the highest number of shark attacks at 8. Volusia's southern neighbor, Brevard County, came in second with 3 shark attacks. ISAF says geographically adjacent counties located on the central east coast, just east of Orlando, have collectively recorded more than one-third (37%: 257 of 687 cases) of the entirety of Florida's shark-human interactions to date.
Researchers say that this high number of shark attacks around Florida's Space Coast is attributable to very high aquatic recreational utilization of their attractive beaches and waters by both Florida residents and tourists, especially surfers, and the rich nature of Florida's marine fauna.
Black Tip Shark. Photo Credit: NOAAAccording to NOAA, the number one species for biting along the beaches on the U.S. East Coast is the blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus) in the top picture. The shark has black tips on its pectoral fins and grows to no more than about six feet.
FATALITIES:
Ten fatalities resulted from unprovoked attacks in 2013, up from the 2012 total of seven and above the 2003-2012 ten-year average of six fatalities per year. Fatalities were recorded in Australia (2), Réunion (2), Brazil (1), Diego Garcia (1), Hawaii (1), Jamaica (1), New Zealand (1), and South Africa (1).
The fatality rate in the U.S. was notably lower (2.1%) than that of rest of the world (36%), which researchers believe is likely reflective of the greater safety and medical capacity in areas of the U.S. where shark attacks historically occur.
Surfers and others participating in board sports (46% of cases: 48 incidents) were most often involved in these incidents in 2013. Less affected recreational user groups included swimmers/waders (31%) and divers (14%). Surfers have been the most-affected user group in recent years. Researchers say that this is the probable result of the large amount of time spent by these folks engaged in provocative activity (kicking of feet, splashing of hands, and "wipeouts") in areas frequented by sharks, the surf zone.
BREVARD COUNTY SHARK NEWS STORIES:
Florida Lifeguard Pulls Shark Back Into The Water!
Brevard Shark Fisherman Falls Into Water With Shark
Shark Attacks Woman In Cape Canaveral: VIDEO
Shark Attack In Melbourne, Florida
19-Year-Old Orlando Man Bitten By Shark In Brevard
Shark Bites Man's Hand in Melbourne Beach
Shark Attacks Teen Off Florida's Space Coast
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