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Old 02-10-2013, 09:54 AM
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Default Picks/Sprint Unlimited (Formerly Shootout Race)/SaturdayNight/Feb16

It's that time!!!!!


NASCAR season is back!!! The guys go down to Daytona for the shootout starting Tuesday/Wednesday..... and this year, there are SO MANY changes....... so lets dive right on in, shall we????



Classic NASCAR Photo of the Day:

I'm going to move this into the current thread and just post classic photos in here from now on.... I might move them back out into the other thread eventually....

I'm thinknig this season, I won't post a bunch of pictures ni the rundown, I will just post one per day as teh week goes on in the current weeks racing thread.


Today's photo isn't exactly classic... I just want to make sure Carl is paying attention. This is Jimmie Johnson's Daytona 500 winning car in 2006... the year Chad Knaus was suspended for that illegal rear window bit.

Name:  daytonajohnson2006_zps968f0601.jpg
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I have a really special photo I am saving for the dya of the "Sprint Unlimited".....


The New Car!!

The biggest unknown for sure this year is the new car that NASCAR has brought out.... it is essentially like hitting a reset button for every team and it's going to be tough to see who comes out of the box the strongest.

Many of the teams believe that hte car that runs the best at Daytona/Talladega may not run the best on the 1 mile flat tracks like Phoenix or the 1.5's like Las Vegas and Texas. Figuring out which manufacturer has the best advatantages in engines, chassis set ups, and body designs each week could be part of how you win the fantasy line up each week....

Some changes to the car have been made as well as far as teh set up goes. For one, teams are now allowed to use these spacer plates in the rear axle to give the tires rear camber kidn of like you would the front. This gives a whole new dimension to play with in the rear now. Speaking of rear end setups, anyone remember last year when Brad Keselowski called out the Hendrick cars for running bascially illegal setups? Well, some teams have now admitted that Keselowski wasn't really being a crybaby, he was telling the truth... the trick setup to make the cars look like they're driving down teh straightaway sideways and get sideforce is now illegal. The Hendrick cars were really big on that set up... and they have changed the rule this year. Will that hurt the Hendrick cars? Traditionally speaking, no it will not.


Basically, a lot of power and adjustability has been given to the teams, but some more has been taken away too.



Fantasy This Year

Just for clarification, I do want to say that no changes have been implemented into the NASCAR fantasy this year. We are going to run with the same rules made when we started this league in 2009 and the same rules that we had when we went to Martinsville last season....

Going to Daytona...


Ah yes, the greatest crapshot in the world.


Last year, had we been paying better attention, we would have seen in the Gatorade Duel races that the Ford combination of Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle was going to be stout for the race since they were so fast in the duel races. If we pay attention in the shootout and in the duels, we may have a decent idea of which cars should be the strongest in the Daytona 500. If we were still using last years car, it would be easy to say the the Ford teams have a big advantage, particularly since Carl Edwards has Matt Kenseth's old team and Greg Biffle has the same team as last year. But it's a new car... and not a lot transfers...


So who is going to win the shootout.... well...




The rundown for this week

I'm not as much going to do a rundown as I am going to give my thoguhts on each team from what I knwo they are doing in the off season... starting with...


The Chevrolet Teams

At the 1.5 mile tests, the Chevrolets have been pretty stout.

One important note is that "Big One" crash they had at Daytona in testing. That st arted when a Chevrolet bumper came in contact with a rear bumper for a Ford. It may be importatn to note that the Chevy and Ford don't line up... and the Ford may have to push the Chevrolet to victory!

Hendrick Motorsports

When NASCAR makes big changes, Hendrick has traditionally been the first, or atleast among hte first, to figure out a way to make his cars go fast under the new rules. Kasey Kahne set a lightning fast lap at Charlottei n a test that would have been a track record had that been an official race weekend. But we're not in Charlotte.

Hendrick has been known to put some emphasis in these big restricter plate races before. He has a couple of the best in restircter plates in Jeff Gordon and Dale Jr (yeah... I did finally confess Junior is pretty decent at restricterp lates... and no, I do'nt back down from my statement that he hasn't won a points paying restrictor plate run since George Bush's first term as President).

So, all that being said... Hendrick is going to eb a force to be reckoned with. However....

However, I do have to say that I don't like picking Jimmie Johnson for these restricter plate races. He has good cars, can lead laps, but bad luck seems to find him. When he is leading, he blows engines. When he's in the back, he gets in a wreck. And that one time in a blue moon that he does break through and have a solid race, he usually ends up winning. So Jimmie is kind of a "gamble" in my opinion.

Jeff Gordon seemed to break a restricter plate bad luck streak by finishing 2nd at Talladega last year... otherwise, he had been crap on Daytona and Talladega too.

I've never really known Kasey to be strong on Daytona or Talladega...

and then, as I like to point out, Dale Jr hasn't won a points paying race at one of these things since 2004....

But this isn't a points paying race...

Phoenix Racing

They have either REgan Smith or AJ Allmendinger... but these guys love running good on restrictor plate races. We'll haev to see... they get their stuff from Hendrick...

Stewart Haas Racing

For the 15th time in his career, Stewart will be trying to win the Great American Race, the Daytona 500. Stewart is traditionally very good in Daytona, so long as it isn't the Daytona 500 he is going to try to win. He has won the shootout a couple of time, he has won the 400 in July 3 times, and he has won the Duels... but he hasn't put together a Daytona 500 yet.. .even lost 2008 on the last lap. With taht being said, I have to think Stewart is a good shot at a duel race.

Ryan Newman is just snake bit on Daytona and Talladega... sure, he broke through and won the 2008 Daytona 500, but I have to ask "What have you done for me lately?" Soimeone let me know if they haev answer for that...

Furniture Row Racing

These guys have moved their pit crew to Denver, they are improving hteir cars, and they have a championship caliber driver. However, we all know it can only be a matter of time before Kurt Busch has one of his patented blow ups and ruins it all.

Kurt Busch does have one of the better restricter plate average finisehs though.... he has run 2nd so many times in these deals it isn't even funny.

So that pretty well raps up the Chevrolets...

Toyota Teams

The Toyotas have kind of stuck to themselves in testing... and they have been fast, as much as we all hate to admit it.

Plus, the part the media won't shut up about... Toyota now has Matt Kenseth in their stable....

The other thing they won't shut up about is the "Cinderella Story" of Michael Waltrip Racing...


Joe Gibbs Racing

Every year, we go into the season and one team is touted as the "powerhouse"... and it seems to me, more times than not, the pressure gets to them and they fall on their face. This year, the team that is either going to be a strong powerhouse or is going to just fall flat on its face, will have to be the Joe Gibbs Racing cars....

OF course, having the experience and expertise of Matt Kenseth brings some stability to a team full of rowdy young kids. Denny Hamlin needs a rock to lean on to get his head straightened out, Kyle Busch needs someone to calm his temper, and Matt Kenseth needs some youth enthusiasm to get him to wake up before he climbs into his race car.... serioulsy, he looks half asleep most of the time.

Plus, they have been really fast in the Daytona testing... so it looks like a foreign manufactuer may win the Daytona 500 this time.......

Michael Waltrip Racing

While many people also tout the Gibbs stable, a lot of people talk about how fast Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex, plus whomever drove that 55 car were all season.... but like many things, how many times has that most touted team or driver gone on to win a championship? I believe Michael Waltrip Racing had a great season... and they may be setting their goals to high or getting too full of htemselves... or they may come out and win a title this year.

We do have to remember that at Talladega, Clint Bowyer is about the best there is... but I don't think he has ever won anything at Daytona....


Ford Teams

My beloved Ford's... while we did one time have the best run at Charlotte with Greg Biffle, the reality is we Ford fans have been overshadowed a bit by the Toyotas in Daytona testing and the Chevrolets and Toyotas in the 1.5's.... and when it comes to restricter plate racing, Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards admitted they had work to do to get ready...

Were they just trying to make us underestimate them, or were they serious? We'll find out on Saturday...

And we also know that Chevrolet front bupmers don't like Ford rear bumpers... at least, Dale Jr doesn't like Marcos Ambrose bumper...


Roush Fenway Racing

Greg Biffle is stepping up as the "statesman" of the group... while Carl Edwards may be the "star" of the stable. Carl Edwards is getting the old 17 team.... and those guys are fired up about workign with Edwards. Edwards also says that Jimmy Fennig scares him a little, which is good. Fennig has also told Edwards to let the cameras and the tv guys talk about what they want, don't make a show for them, and just go out and do your job... which is something Edwards probably needs to hear, considering how often you see him pushing people over to get in front of a TV camera.

After a bad season, usually the 99 takes about halfway through the following season to get back to its winning ways. But if he can get the man who built the Daytona 500 winning car and the Talladega winner last season to figure out how to make a Ford go fast at Daytona for him, Carl Edwards might be a serious threat to win the race...

Greg Biffle is the man who was snake big in 2011, came back strong in 2012, but couldn't see mto piece together the ned of the season. We'll just have ot see how he does this year...

And then we haev to wonder if Ricky Stenhouse is another "boy wonder" who will either win a race or 3 in his rookie year of fall on his face because he is love struck by Danica Patrick...


Penske Racing

The great notable absense for the Sprint Unlimited has to be Brad Keselowski. Since Keselowski has never won the Shootout/Unlimited race, and he didn't win a pole last year, he will not be in the race....

His teammate, Joey Logano, will, however. So we finally get to see if the otehr Boy Wonder who burst onto the scene in '09 will be worth a crap in a new car.

Petty Motorsports

This team needs stability... they shook up the crew chiefs 3 times last season, but what they have going for them is the last couple of years, they ahve come out of the box strong and then tapered off after about 10-15 races. We'll see how that goes this year.




REMEMBER, ALTHOUGH I TALKED ABOUT EVERYONE, ONLY THE FOLLOWING DRIVERS WILL BE IN THE RACE!!!


Remember, if they didn't win a pole last year or if they are not a previous winner of the Shootout, they don't get in this race.... so that means only the following drivers are eligible.


(From Jayski.com)
2012 Pole Winners:
1) Mark Martin (4 poles)
2) Kasey Kahne (4)
3) Jimmie Johnson (4)(WON 2 races from pole)
4) Greg Biffle (3)
5) Denny Hamlin (3)
6) Joey Logano (2)(WON a race from pole)
7) Aric Almirola (2)
8) Juan Pablo Montoya (2)
9) Jeff Gordon (2)
10) Carl Edwards
11) Martin Truex Jr.
12) A.J. Allmendinger
13) Marcos Ambrose
14) Matt Kenseth
15) Kyle Busch (2)(won race 2012)
16) Tony Stewart (won race 2001, 2002, 2007)
17) Dale Earnhardt Jr. (won race 2008)
Past Shootout champions (no 2012 pole):
18) Kurt Busch
19) Kevin Harvick
20) Bill Elliott
21) Terry Labonte
22) Ken Schrader



My Picks...

I'll post them later...
 
  #2  
Old 02-10-2013, 10:39 AM
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Jeff Gordon
Tony Stewart
Matt Kenseth
 
  #3  
Old 02-10-2013, 10:59 AM
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Here's my picks

1) Greg Biffle
2) Tony Stewart
3) Mark Martin
 
  #4  
Old 02-10-2013, 02:44 PM
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Heres my Picks:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Kasey Kane
Tony Stewart
 

Last edited by STUMPMI; 02-16-2013 at 06:39 PM.
  #5  
Old 02-10-2013, 02:54 PM
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1) Denny Hamlin
2) Carl Edwards
3) Kyle Busch
 
  #6  
Old 02-10-2013, 03:49 PM
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Ahh... its great to be making picks again!!!

It is crazy that BradK and Bowyer gotta miss this - both would be great picks to win. But that'll make this easier for Jr. Jr was really embarrassed by the big wreck he started during testing, but I was impressed. He survived it! I think that is more important. And he also got more practice time in then most teams. But he proved he can bump-and-grind and still hold the car.
I also think MWR is emerging as the premier Toyota team. I actually wish Martin would commit full time to the team, but that's not going to happen.
I didn't really know A.J. Allmendinger would be in this race, but Regan Smith is not eligible so he should be. I really hope he can capitalize on this opportunity. I think most wanna see him back in a premium car, but I think owners believe he's a tough sell to sponsors. And they are probably right. But I'm sure there is a few sponsors out there that would be a good fit. He's going to get a fair bit of spotlight, probably more than the average driver, but no one can say his name without mentioning his drug test failing suspension and subsequent firing last year.
So anyways, that's how I'll pick 'em and why...

1. Dale Jr.
2. Mark Martin
3. A.J. Allmendinger
 
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Old 02-10-2013, 04:29 PM
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Greg Biffle
Matt Kenseth
Jeff Gordon
 
  #8  
Old 02-10-2013, 07:43 PM
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What no mention of RCR?
1. Harvick
2. Kurt Busch
3. Jeff Gordon
No team mates here, spreading it out.
 
  #9  
Old 02-10-2013, 08:41 PM
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RCR sucks now. Harvick is okay I guess, but I wouldn't expect Childress to invest to much in him now. Those other RCR twits are worse than the Front Row Motorsports line-up. Menard should be homeless...
 
  #10  
Old 02-10-2013, 08:46 PM
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And the irony is my buddy works at RCR and a year ago, I visited the shop.

It seems like the place is being groomed for the Dillon boys... Ithink Harvick saw that writing on the wall, Jeff Burton is in teh "Dale Jarrett/Bill Elliott" stage of his career where he has fast cars and just can't seem to put anything together if his life depended on it. Paul Menard usually well until like Texas or something and then goes to crap.

Can't hold it against Harvick.. he wanted to leave in 2009 I think it was....
 


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