ATTENTION EVERYONE WHO PICKED TONY STEWART



Don't say I didn't warn you. Everyone who picked Tony Stewart needs to read this article.

Dillon, Stewart have qualifying time disallowed - Jul 06, 2012 - NASCAR.COM


If Tony Stewart gets a points penalty, you will get the same penalty. We agreed early in the year when Jimmie got that penalty over some BS at Daytona that the people who picked him still get the penalty. For me to be fair and consistent, every one of you who took Pony will get the penalty.

Whether or not we take the win or not will depend on if they take Stewarts finishing position. If they take his finishing position, I will take your win. If they let his position stand, I'll let your stand... but I'm going to get your points. I knwo there are a few of you, so make your beds and lay in them....



Points, Intro, and Congratulatory Remarks

First off, lets off a congratulations to Mike Beck (03JGMonte) for a big win at Kentucky last week. That win helped him out in the points a bit.

Congrats again to Carl Martin for holding the overall points lead, and congrats to Leprechaun for holding that Segment 2 points lead.


So as we go to Daytona, the man who has to defend his win is...

Defending Winner: zjerry


Currently, the points are looking like this. Segment 2 is up for grabs and will be over at the checkered flag at Daytona. That is most important for Leprechaun93 and carlm54stl. I am excited to see who pulls it off!!!

1) Leprechuan 93 881 Leader
2) carlm54stl 873 -8
3) Cowboy6622 838 -43
4) SupplySgt 831 -50
5) 02 Earnhardt 831 -50
6) STUMPMI 822 - 59
7) JuniorCar 822 -59
8) bblackstone 84 808 -73
9) lougreen03 799 -82
10) 03JGMonte 793 -88
11) zjerry 788 -93
12) silverfish33 781 -100
13) adgm2005 774 -107
14) montecarlo3831 738 -143
15) 77GP 721 -160
16) butch049 663 -208
17) Ricks 2006 SS 304
18) SupersportSteve 243
19) RocknSS04 220
20) 01 Monte SS 68
21) SSmeansSuperSexy 60
22) 06 Mistre SS 45


The overall points take a back seat for a moment. However, they're pretty stretched out though. There is a new 3rd place man...

1) carlm54stl 1823 Leader
2) JuniorCar 1788 -35
3) Cowboy6622 1748 -75
4) SupplySgt 1735 -88
5) Leprechaun93 1732 -91
6) bblackstone 1729 -94
7) zJerry 1700 -123
8) 02 Earnhardt 1697 -126
9) lougreen03 1685 -138
10) 03JGMonte 1678 -145
11) montecarlo3831 1675 -148
12) butch049 1608 -215
13) 77GP 1572 -251
14) silverfish 1520 -303
15) STUMPMI 1471
16) adgm2005 1246
17) RocknSS04 1142
18) SuperSportSteve 928
19) 01 Monte SS 908
20) 06 Mistre SS 428
21) Teacher 306
22) Ricks 2006 SS 304
23) yutzybrian 211
24) Racebound2 83
25) Possum 77
26) 04chevyboy 76
27) Emily666 61
28) SSMeansSuperSexy 60
29) mousehouse 54



The Importance of This Week

Ithink most of us pick to win. However, for two people this week, luck and who they pick will play a key role. So I'm putting some pressure on you!!! As stated, Leprechaun has the 8 point advantage, but the big key is going to come down to luck between the top two guys to see who comes out with the Segment. They have see-sawed back and forth for 8 weeks... who can be up at the top when the dust settles on Segmetn 2?

Plus, who doesn't want the prestige of winning a race at Daytona, even if it just the MCF Fantasy race??? There are 16-17 full time runners on this thing... to beat all of them on a race at NASCAR's most prestigious track... heck, I'll take if it none of you want it!!


The Real Race This Week

I feel like we're in a big transition for NASCAR right now. New rules in effect at Kentucky are going to be tested on a restricter plate. NASCAR has been trying to put an end to that two car draft, and at the Daytona 500, they seemed to have largely eliminated it. At Talladega, where the turns are more sweeping and more banked, it still played some of a factor.

But Daytona has weathered over the winter, new rules take more downforce away from the car, NASCAR laregely eliminated the two car draft at the beginning of the year, nad I feel like the new rules package will make it even less of a factor.

And as a result, I feel like we're transitioning back into a time like the days when a single team seemed to come out on top and dominate restricter plate races. In the early 2000s, it was Dale Jr and Michael Waltrip. Who can forget those days....



And I feel like the new team that is becoming dominant is Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. They dominated the end of Daytona, they could have won Talladega had they hooked up better... and Ford is going for a fourth straight win at Daytona in points paying races. This team is strong with those FR9 engines.

However, we have a lot of contenders. We have drivers who do well in the night race and not in the 500. We have drivers who don't seem to run well anywhere else and pop up at the right time at Daytona. We have drivers who run well everywhere else and run like crap at Daytona. We have drivers who can't get enough good luck at Daytona, drivers who run well but just can't seem to avoid the bad luck at this place...

And this year, we have guys in that 13-21 palce in points or so who have got to win races to get into the chase, guys like Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, guys in the chase who want bonus points, guys like Keselowski, Kenseth, Junior....

I feel like with the lack of crashes this year, the big one may not be as much of a factor. The guys are giving each other room, racing respectably, and just not bringing out cautions right now.

AND A BIG IMPORTNAT THING THIS WEEK..... some of us watch practice and qualifying, and some of us don't. This week, not much of that matters. Practice nad qualifying is just numbers this week. The only way any of it may matter is if you qualify bad and there is a big wreck mid pack on lap 4. Otherwise, it doesn't matter. You can qualify up front and get crashed. You can pit and be last on the lead lap, and be leading in 5 laps. None of that stuff that has mattered so much for the last 8 weeks will matter this week.... it's all about being in the right place at the right time.

But Daytona can set off a powerderkeg in a moment. I was at Dover for the biggest crash of the season... and Daytona has a tendency to create some due to the tighter racing here compared to Talladega. The Shootout here was a slugfest full of cautions!! If the 400 is anything like that, it will be a true race of attrition...

And we'll get into some of those guys a bit later.....


I don't know how many of you are interested, but I have always been last or close to last in every points paying race we ever had on the MCF at Daytona.... I did win a Twin 150 race last year....

Daytona History

We all know the history of Daytona. Since the 50s and 60s even, it has been known for high speeds, tight racing, and close finishes. None of that has ever really changed, no matter what package NASCAR implements.

Daytona is my personal favorite of the two restricter plate race tracks. I feel like ti gives a better combination of handling and flat out speed, brute horsepower can't just win Daytona. I feel like it has a better history, plus, I feel like having the lights just adds a level of intrigue to the race... there is just something about stock car racing at high speeds at night time!!!

But how fast is Daytona? Well, I wanted to save this picture for the Twin 125 race next year... but I'm not. (I have more pictures of classic Daytona races than this forum wants to see... so I picked a few of my favorites and a few I think are relevant, plus some relevant to the summer time race).

Well, to answer that question in the previous paragraph, Daytona is fast enough to not only break your windshield, but it's fast enough to blow the back window right out of your car. This happened in the Twin 125 race in 1969, Lee Roy lost the rear window in his '69 Ford, and the air pressure screwing up caused him to lose control. He gathered it up, they got a new window in the car, and he won the 1969 Daytona 500 in a last lap pass... first time there was ever last lap pass at Daytona.




How hot is it in Daytona in July? Well, the night time lights take a way alot of that heat. This race used to start at 10:00 am in an attempt to just beat that summer time heat. But this race used to be run on July 4, no matter what day that was, a Saturday, sunday, or Wednesday. Now they move it to the nearest weekend.

But to answer that question in the previous paragraph, it was so hot, Richard Petty gave up his solid blue car to paint the top white, hoping that white would reflect out some of that summer time heat....




How bad do drivers want to win Daytona? Pretty bad... innovation is a big key to winning at Daytona. And if NASCAR wants to end the 2 car draft for good... maybe too good, they need to look back at 1969. Lee Roy Yarbrough and htat Junior Johnson led team figured out how to stop the infamous sling shot pass that was coming to be common at Daytona. Many drivers figured out how to hang back and make those sling shots on the last lap. Junior Johnson and Lee Roy didn't want to lose like that. So, their solution was to run the exhaust out of the back of the car instead of the traditional sides. The result: The hot air coming out of the exhaust out of the back of the car, right over the radiator of the car behind it,, combined wtih the already hot summer time Florida weather, would result in overheating of any driver that tried to ride behind Lee Roy for a long period of time. Other drivers complained of the nauseating fumes, and NASCAR mandated that exhaust has to go out the side...



How long has Daytona been known for close racing? As long as it has existed. The Mercury Cyclones, dodge Chargers, and Plymouth Roadrunners were able to run about as tight as modern stock cars around this place...



But at the same time, they would sometimes stretch out and run a little bit, as seen in this photo from the 1969 Firecracker 400...



Soemtimes, drivers pushed too hard... how long have tires been an issue at Daytona? Well, more often in the past than in the present. Those Daytona walls have claimed a lot of cars... like Cale Yarborough, who was trying to defend his 1968 Daytona 500 win, but came up short in the 1969 race because of this...




And how many historic NASCARs have run Daytona? Well, so many of them. Look at all those Daytona Chargers, Superbirds, Torino Talladegas, and Mercury Cyclones. The winner? Well, this was the 1970 Firecracker 400... and David Pearson was about to win it in a '69 Talladega, but blew a right front tire... Donnie Allison had to finish the job for Ford and win that race for them.



How long was Pepsi a part of Daytona? Pepsi had a long time sponsorship with Daytona. Coca~Cola had dibs on it in 1956 or so, yet they didn't believe such a thing was possible and didn't want to give Bill France Sr the money. Bill France Sr then went to NC and talked to Pepsi, and they gave him the money. The result was a nearly 50 year agreement between Daytona and Pepsi. But Pepsi stepped back its efforts at Daytona to focus on sponsoring Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jeff Gordon, and the Hendrick organization. Coke stepped back its "Coca Cola family of racing" program a bit to step up and sponsor a big race at Daytona....


So that's just a few of the reasons I love Daytona. And despite all that Ford dominance in the last 60s, and Bill Elliotts dominance in the 80's, Chevrolet still has more wins here


FORD TEAMS

I don't usually start with Ford, but i will this week. I feel like Ford is the team to beat.... mostly....

Roush Fenway Racing

And maybe even Carl Edwards. Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle were really fast in their Gatorade race, they were fast in the Daytona 500, they were fast at Talladega, and it's really too bad Kenseth is leaving Roush, because I felt like we were going into an era similar to the early 2000s when Jr and Waltrip dominated these races... I felt like Kenseth, Biffle, Roush, and the FR9 were emerging as the dominant forces at the restricter plate races. I feel like they will be for at least one more run.... and I'm certainly picking those two fast Fords for two of my picks!! My real question is who my other pick will be.

Edwards, even on his off years, has had good runs at the Daytona fall race. However, when is running that Subway paint job, like he is this week,, stya far, far away. Edwards only runs good in his primary paint job for his primary sponsor... he has never run good in special paint schemes, and sometimes he likes to run that cursed Subway car at Daytona. It had issues at Dover, it has been wrecked in Phoenix, and it is just a cursed paint job, has been for years.



Petty Motorsports

I feel like Ambrose is emerging as a decent little restricter plate racer. He has shown some progress, but as I alluded to in my initial rundown of this week, he is one of those guys who runs good, but never finds the luck. Almirola is too hard to gauge yet... but how cool would it be to see that Petty #43 win one more time at Daytona???? It hasn't happened since 1984....


Wood Bros Racing

I don't think you should be so quick to jump on that Trevor Bayne bandwagon. Trevor won at Daytona in 2011 in teh 500, but he has wrecked in every other race he ever ran here, including Twin 125 races and Budweiser Shootouts. I don't think he knows how to pack race as well as everyone credits him for. He did run like 8th at Talladega which gives us some hope, though....

Those other guys

David Gilliland and David Ragan drive Ford's for whoever that team is, and both are good restricter plate racers. But I don't feel like they have the chance to be at the front as the Roush cars do. They're more long shots

CHEVROLET TEAMS

Chevrolet has historically been the dominant factor....

Hendrick Motorsports

I don't feel like the Hendrick restricter plate program is what it was last year. Tehri intermediate is proving untouchable though.

Dale Earnhardt Jr comes to mind and will probably be on 15 of 16 teams this week. However, he hasn't won a restricter plate race in about 5 years. And quite frankly, Talladega is his better restricter plate track, not Daytona. It would be really cool for Junior to win in Daytona, and he showed he could do it in the 500 this year, but can he really do it? Well...

Jeff Gordon just seems to be bad luck stricken on restricter plate races for the last 5-6 years too. He needs to go for broke and win races to get into that chase.

A guy who runs really well at Daytona but just never has the luck, especially in the summer race, is Jimmie Johnson. They hit pot holes, they blow tires, they blow engines, they get caught up in everyone elses mess... more of Johnsons restricter plate wins have come at Talladega. And his only Daytona wins happened at daytime. So if we get rained out Saturday night, lets talk about him as a Sunday afternoon driver...

Kasey Kahne needs those wins..

Stewart Haas Racing

Last year, Hendrick couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with their program while Stewart-Haas could, this year, it's the other way around. Every time Stewart gets his stuff going good, bad things happen to him. That includes Newman. Newmans only really good restricter plate run was that 2008 Daytona 500 for Penske. Newman is one of those guys who runs well at these things, but just seems to get caught up in a lot of crap.

Stewart, however, is a guy to talk about who can dominate and win this July race. Stewart was nearly untouchable in this race for a few years. He is a bit like Dale Earnahrdt... alwyas talked about when we go to Daytona, always a big factor in any race.. .except that Daytona 500, just cna't get it right.

Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

Jamie McMurray is best on restricter plate races . He has a Daytona 500, a few Talladegas, a few Daytonas... some of those wins coming with Roush Fenway racing, but he has still won and been a factor with the current team too. But this team couldn't pull a salmon upstream right now.

Watch out for jet dryers, Montoya... (don't you know he gets tired of hearing about that)

Finch Racing

Kurt Busch is a decent little restricter plate guy, but never wins... several times in 2nd, but I still feel like he ins't far from a full blown melt down with those guys at that team either.

Richard Childress Racing

I swear I think Mr. Where did he come from is losing a little of that magic... he hasn't been a major factor in the last few of these, but then again, he isn't "Mr. Where did he come from" without a reason. Menard ran alright in the Daytona 500, but Burton is just in that Dale Jarrett-Bill Elliott-end of a career-can't do anything- mode.... and struck with more bad luck than Jeff Gordon and Carl Edwards combined!

TOYOTA TEAMS

Joe Gibbs Racing

They're going to be tough too. Kyle Busch was a dominant factor in this July race for a while too. Denny Hamlin is underrated and just can't seem to close the deal at these things. Hamlin practically invented two car drafting.

In the old two car system, Joey was always Kyles pusher. Hamlin got left out somehow. Joey Logano is stepping out and making moves, he has won a Nationwide restricter palte race and ran 2nd several times... is he going to get anotehr win and put himself in position for that wild card?

Michael Waltrip Racing

This year, Truex was a good car in the Daytona 500 and I feel like he is one of those underrated guys who, if he can get away from bad luck, will be a big factor.

Clint Bowyer is good at Daytona, don't get me wrong, but his better restricter plate track is really Talladega.. .that's where he can get 'er done. He might be a big factor at Daytona, but I feel like his odds are better at 'Dega.

Micheal Waltrip will probably run the 55... and I saw that guy in practice, he just isn't physically up to this stuff. He eneds to put Mark MArtin or even the wide eyed Brian Vickers in there to get the job done...

DODGE TEAM

Penske

Brad Keselowski seems good on extremes... like Talladega, Bristol... high banks agree with this guy... but Talladega is also his better restricter plate race track. Brad K wants wins and he loves driving fast.

AJ Allmendinger has already run well at Daytona one time this year... he won the 24 hours of Daytona in a Ford!!! And he is going back to Ford!!! And Ford has the best restricter plate engine right now!!!

But he's in a Dodge right now....

But Dodge doesn't have much incentive to try to save those restricter plate cars they still have left... go out there and race them!!!!

The thing about Penske is, they also ahve a tendency to ride around in the back and save their cars to the end.


My Picks

I only have two right that I'm certain of, that's Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle. They're tough and fast right now. They make me proud to own a pair of Ford's!!! But I have so many people I want to consider for that other pick.... guys like Carl Edwards, Brad K, AJ Allmendinger, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kasey Kahne, Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano.....


I'm going to take my shot in the wind right now and say....

1) Matt Kenseth
2) Greg Biffle
3) Denny Hamlin

But I am very up in the air with my 3rd pick....

 

Dale JR
Kevin Harvick
J. Johnson

what do I have to lose, I suck this year.........

 

Chris, the race is there to be won.... you are 143 points out, and a max points day is 133. So to go all out to win is a good strategy for one race, we all want to win Daytona... but going forward, you lose 148 points in 18 races... you could make up that many points in the next 18 if you get those picks together, get that luck going in the right direction for the 2nd half, and start laying a whooping on everybdoy and win some races!!! zjerry was over 200 points out at one point last year, yet rallied to 5th and was 2nd with like 4 races to go last year....

 

Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
Dale JR

 

88-16-29

 

Duane, I have zero strategy at picking, it's either Yahoo for picks or just blind draw for me.... I've been watching races for 20 years now with no real instinct at who will win..... I like playing along though........

 

1. #88 Dale Jr. 2. #17 Matt Kenseth 3. #5 Kasey Kahne

 

Here's my pick
1) Jimmie Johnson
2) Dale Earnhardt Jr
3) Jeff Gordon

 

Carl did not go with Jimmie Johnson... probably the first time all season....


Yet I can see the Dale Jr. boat is filling up just like it always does.



How many people look at or read my little history pictures? I think the one with the white #98 spinning out, the blue and white Petty car, and then the second shot of the pipes coming out of the rear of the #98 have a pretty interesting story if you don't check out the rest of it... pretty cool stuff in the NASCAR Historians opinion.



Some interesting tid bits... GM Products to Ford products winning this race... GM has won 23, Ford products: 21. GM includes Buick, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, and Chevrolet, Ford products including Ford and Mercury. If you break this race down strictly, Ford vs. Chevrolet, Ford has 18 wins, Chevrolet 15. A Chevrolet did not win this race until 1985.... Dodge has not won this race since 1977 when Petty did it, and a Toyota only won once in 2008.....

 

Petty was pretty inventive back then for sure..I found the rear faceing exhaust pipes idea were genius! (to stop the slingshot effect) as well as the white painted roof to aleviate the heat!

I guess it created a lot of lift with the rear window poppn out! Weeeeeeee welcome to cedar points new ride! Hehehehehe