So I decided to throw together a little thread on how I believe I was able to pull off a championship win on this thing.



First off, a few no brainers....

1) Make sure you're in every race.

Seems to go without saying, but a few members last year missed a race, and you lose a LOT of ground that way. I honestly feel that missing a race puts you at an insurmountable deficit. It can be overcome mathmatically, of course, but it's so difficult.

2) Vary the teams that your picks come from

I feel that this was the downfall of a couple of members. Although I personally gave in a few times and chose an all Ford or all Chevy team, I didn't do it very often. I feel that putting all of those proverbial eggs in the same basket is a bad idea. If you chose all Hendrick cars and they start blowing engines, you're whole team sinks. If you try to chose restricter plate races by drafting partners and both are taken out in a race, you just lost 2/3rds of your team. Spread your picks out some. It may not win you the race, but it gives you some consistency.

And consistency brings us to point 3.

3) Average about 100 points per race

I won the title with 97.8 points average per race. Segments 1 was won with a 102.1 average, Segment 2 with a 97.7 average, 111.2 for Segment 3, and 105.9 for Segment 4. You need 9 solid races averaging over 100 points to win a segment, but about 100 point winning the year, it shows once again that consistency is important. 100 points per race is possible if your picks run 10th, 11th, and 12th place finishes from your 3 picks every week. Meaning: You don't have to pick the winners of the race!! Picking a guy you know may run top 5 may be a better choice than rolling the dice on someone who may run 1st or 20th. You need those guys who are going to run solid.

Figuring out who runs solid brings us to point 4....

4) Study the track a little bit

You don't have to be a prodigy. NASCAR.com posts Fantasy videos and preview posts with stats every week on who has the best runs at each track by the numbers. Drivers who have a lot of consistency going right now are good examples. Guys who have won races here in the past may be good choices. Pay attention to practice and qualifying and see who is running well this week (Doesn't work every week, but it's a start anyway!). See how has momentum going. If a guy has won 3 out of the last 5 races, he may be a good pick for the next race too!!

5) Pick consistent drivers!

Guys like Carl Edwards, who won 1 race in 2011 but had more top 5's and top 10's than anyone else makes a solid pick in Fantasy as wel.. Guys like Matt Kenseth, who don't make a lot of noise ,are good too. I rode the Jimmie Johnson train several times and it actually cost me this year. For years, however, Jimmie would ahve been a solid pick. Jeff Gordon used to be a good pick in the non-chase races, but then he falls apart in the Chase somehow. Things like this may not win the races, but they'll keep you running well in points. Drivers like these tend to get you farther in the overall points than picking inconsistent drivers like Stewart, Harvick, or Junior.


6) Watch out for Points Penalties!!!

We give points penalties here when a driver you picked gets a penalty!!! You may want to think twice about chosing a driver when you see that team being called out for pushing the margins. This also means you should think twice about teams like Kyle and Kurt Busch, who could just go off at any time and end up getting penalties from NASCAR. High risk/high reward though. Yet I've chosen both drivers on several occasions.


7) A little luck doesn't hurt either

Sometimes, you can pick 3 solid drivers, and not catch a break. My heart goes out to zJerry for the first part of last year. He would pick 3 of the most solid drivers in the series every week and finish last with them. I coudlnt' figure out how he did it either. Luck can mean a lot. I won the title this year with one win. My luck may turn around and I run 7th next year and not even win a race. I may win 10 yet still be plagued with inconsistency. I may get another 1 win year with a championship. We won't know until we play and find out. For those of you readnig this, you may have had a good or bad year in 2011, you may not have had a year because you weren't playing!! But you won't know how your luck will go unless you play.

8) Pick with your head

I'm going to **** some people off with this one!

JuniorCar Brent will give me hell for this. (and I use Brent because he likes talking about his style more than anyone else as far as I can tell) Just because you don't like a driver doesn't mean you shouldn't pick them!! I also say this becasue of all the guys who chose Harvick and Dale Jr. a lot. Those guys had some great races, yet we went to some tracks where Jr. and Harvick had average finishes in the 20s, the fact would be pointed out on this thread, yet 5 people would still take one or both. It baffled me. Whiel it may be fun, I just don't think it is going to give you the consistency needed to win a championship.

Another good example was KidSpace. KidSpace had a terrible Segment 1, then for Segment 2, started making 2 sets of picks, a set he played with and thought would win, and another set he hoped would win. His season turned around and he was 2nd in points leaving Bristol in August.

9) Have fun and enjoy playing

This point is a bit contrary to point 8. Pick which way want to do things.


These 5 points are just my opinions. Brent will take me up on a few of them. JuniorCar Brent has the honor of being the most morally upstanding member who refuses to choose Busch brothers or Juan Peblo. He picked with his heart. Brent probably had more fun than anyone sticking to these rules and leading by example. It won him several races, but his consistency was lacking!!! However, if you can sleep better at night and have more fun playing that way than trying to win a title, then all the more power to you and we welcome that style as much as any other. I, on the other hand, won only 1 race, but did grab the inaugural segment and championship.





So in conclusion, I feel that following these points will earn you a title. While points 8 and 9 are contrary, I feel they can be reconciled in which way you will have more fun playing. Ih ad more fun trying to pick the evils that may win rather than the "good guys" who would run well. Picking Kyle Busch helped me get my only win of the year in Bristol in March of 2011. But picking consistent drivers whom I thoguht would win rather than the drivers who were my favorites was the way I had fun trying to make the most consistent picks I could. I made some bold, edgy moves, but I did so with more caution. That was the way I had fun. For you, picking your favorite driver each week may be what makes things fun for you. If that is the case, play the way your mind or heart (or both) tell you. Do what feels right. Have a lot of fun, and I hope to see all your picks in the Daytona thread!!!

 

Might have to use some of these tips lol last season i just picked drivers who were doin good at that point in the season

 

Nice write up..

 

Just like in real racing consistency in the key. There are a lot of different theory's on how to pick drivers. I like to pick from a few of sources like qualifying, Duane's rundown and past drivers who have done well at a particular track. Most of all we have fun so you all should join us.

 

Hi `Duane,
Great write up & information..I demand a recount of last years season... I'm sure that I should have been in last place . Most of the time I just guessed & was lucky a few times, but had fun playing 4-Sure...

Thanks for taking your time to share & inform.
I hope we get more member's to participate & enjoy the fun.
Thanks 4-Sure

 

Excellent Duane. Thanks for taking the time to write this up. I may have to listen to some of it. But hey, I gave you somewhat of a scare last season. It was very fun and I looked forward to watching the races alot more.

 

Any of you guys who won a lot of races want to tell me how you did it? Now that I've won a championship, I'm going to go out for some race wins this year!

 

Hi `Duane,
Get down on your knee's & pray to the "Racing Gods"

 

Cant let any secrets out of the bag!! I think I won 4, sometimes going against the grain worked. Ex I took Paul Menard when nobody else would and I won that week. Cant figure out how I picked 1-2-3 in order that week early on. Luck I guess, probably wont see that happen. Maybe we need to put bonus points in for someone if they can pull that off. Extra 25 points or so. Might have made it easier for me to get you last year, between that and the Busch Penalty.

 

10) Don't pick Peblo. He sucks. He really hasn't accomplished anything more than David Ragan, and his career appears to be over.