What You値l be Driving in 2016 > ? <
#1
12-08-2010, 04:03 PM
What You値l be Driving in 2016 > ? <
What You’ll be Driving in 2016 + More links below 
by Jerry Edgerton |
Your car is about to get a green makeover.
For years, the auto industry had successfully fought off attempts to impose tougher gas mileage standards. But when the big automakers came to Washington last year asking for handouts, the help came at a price: tough new national standards. The rules — previously proposed as state limits by California — will require each car company selling in the U.S. to deliver an average fuel economy of 35.5 miles per gallon for its cars, SUVs, vans, and pickups sold here.
That’s about 40 percent higher than the current average. And to get there by the 2016 deadline, the auto companies will need to roll out a mix of technological innovations.
Some automakers are fielding new plug-in electric cars like the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, both of which go on sale late this year. The mix on Auto Row will also include improved gas-electric hybrids and cleaner diesels. We may even see engines that run on natural gas or hydrogen making a dent in the market.
Chevrolet Volt
“It is not just one or the other of these alternatives,” said Robert Davis, senior vice president for product development and quality for Mazda North American Operations. “We have to use them all.”
Most analysts agree. But with all those options hitting the roads, you may face tricky calculations when choosing the car that gives you the best value for your money. Among the questions: Is a plug-in electric the most environmentally correct choice if the electricity is generated by a coal-fired power plant spewing greenhouse gases?
Here, in the order of their predicted market share, is a closer look at the vehicle you could be driving in 2016.
Gas Engines, New and Improved
Gasoline engines with high-tech improvements will remain dominant this decade for a simple reason: Incremental technology changes are the most efficient way for automakers to deliver low-cost higher mileage. Gasoline engines, which now account for about 90 percent of car sales, will still have a 73 percent U.S. market share by 2016 and just below 70 percent by 2020, according to forecasts by research firm J.D. Power and Associates.
To be sure, small but stylish cars are one of the simplest ways to market high mileage: Diminutive models like the Honda Fit and Nissan Versa already sell well. Ford plans to bring in its small-car Fiesta and a redesigned Focus from Europe, and General Motors will bring the Chevrolet Cruze, based on a compact Opel model it sells in Europe, to the U.S. market later this year.
Larger vehicles will need engine improvements to get the needed mileage boost. “We expect to see a lot more turbocharging, cylinder deactivation, and direct injection,” says Michael Omotoso, senior manager for global powertrain research at J.D. Power. “All these technologies exist right now, but we expect wider adoption going forward.” These mileage boosters either burn fuel more completely, or run on lower power or fewer cylinders most of the time, with additional power kicking in just when needed.
Though well-established by now, hybrid models such as the Toyota Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid see their sales rise and fall with gasoline prices. One drawback is their higher price compared with gasoline models. The 2010 Ford Escape hybrid small SUV, for example, has a base price of $29,785 compared with $23,575 for the non-hybrid XLT model.
Toyota, already the leader in hybrids, said at the Detroit Auto Show that it will intoduce eight new hybrid vehicles over the next few years. BMW also is working on a small-car hybrid. J.D. Power’s Omotoso predicts that hybrids, now just under 3 percent of U.S. auto sales, will rise to around 9 percent by 2016 and 12 percent by 2020.
Volkswagen Jetta TDI
Current diesel models are terrific new cars with an old image problem. But federal requirements for clean diesel fuel mean that sleek, quiet models from Volkswagen, BMW, Audi and Mercedes now meet standards for nitrogen oxides and other pollutants — even in California, where they had been banned. J.D. Power projects diesels, now about 3 percent of sales, to reach 8.5 percent by 2016 and around 10 percent by 2020 as more buyers realize their merits. One of the biggest selling points is mileage, which is competitive with hybrids — especially in highway driving. (Volkswagen’s Jetta, for instance is rated at 40 mpg on the highway and 29 in the city.)
Plug-in electric cars have the most buzz going into the new decade. Niche electrics like the rocket-fast Tesla Roadster at more than $100,000 are already available, but late this year consumers will get a chance to buy two models aimed at volume sales — the all-electric Nissan Leaf and the battery-powered Chevrolet Volt, which has an auxiliary gasoline engine for recharging. The Volt will sell at around $40,000 and the Leaf about $25,000; the first 60,000 buyers will also get a $7,500 federal tax credit. But price is likely to remain an issue. “The tax credit will help, but battery-based cars can be expected to be more expensive for years in the future,” says Jack Nerad, executive editorial director and market analyst for Kelley Blue Book. Plug-ins will hit only about 1 percent market share by 2016 and perhaps 5 percent by 2020, according to J.D. Power forecasts.
Further out on the green-car horizon, both General Motors and Honda have prototype hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that drive just like traditional cars except with no noise and no emissions except water. And Honda actually makes and sells about 2,000 Civic GXs a year. The cars are powered by clean-burning, low-emission natural gas — an increasingly abundant fuel in the U.S. But hydrogen and natural gas cars share a huge problem: refueling spots are hard to find. That makes their likely combined market share less than 1 percent even by 2020 — although they might gain some ground as fleet vehicles, which could have their own refueling stations.
by Jerry Edgerton |
Your car is about to get a green makeover.
For years, the auto industry had successfully fought off attempts to impose tougher gas mileage standards. But when the big automakers came to Washington last year asking for handouts, the help came at a price: tough new national standards. The rules — previously proposed as state limits by California — will require each car company selling in the U.S. to deliver an average fuel economy of 35.5 miles per gallon for its cars, SUVs, vans, and pickups sold here.
That’s about 40 percent higher than the current average. And to get there by the 2016 deadline, the auto companies will need to roll out a mix of technological innovations.
Some automakers are fielding new plug-in electric cars like the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, both of which go on sale late this year. The mix on Auto Row will also include improved gas-electric hybrids and cleaner diesels. We may even see engines that run on natural gas or hydrogen making a dent in the market.
Chevrolet Volt“It is not just one or the other of these alternatives,” said Robert Davis, senior vice president for product development and quality for Mazda North American Operations. “We have to use them all.”
Most analysts agree. But with all those options hitting the roads, you may face tricky calculations when choosing the car that gives you the best value for your money. Among the questions: Is a plug-in electric the most environmentally correct choice if the electricity is generated by a coal-fired power plant spewing greenhouse gases?
Here, in the order of their predicted market share, is a closer look at the vehicle you could be driving in 2016.
Gas Engines, New and Improved
Gasoline engines with high-tech improvements will remain dominant this decade for a simple reason: Incremental technology changes are the most efficient way for automakers to deliver low-cost higher mileage. Gasoline engines, which now account for about 90 percent of car sales, will still have a 73 percent U.S. market share by 2016 and just below 70 percent by 2020, according to forecasts by research firm J.D. Power and Associates.
To be sure, small but stylish cars are one of the simplest ways to market high mileage: Diminutive models like the Honda Fit and Nissan Versa already sell well. Ford plans to bring in its small-car Fiesta and a redesigned Focus from Europe, and General Motors will bring the Chevrolet Cruze, based on a compact Opel model it sells in Europe, to the U.S. market later this year. Larger vehicles will need engine improvements to get the needed mileage boost. “We expect to see a lot more turbocharging, cylinder deactivation, and direct injection,” says Michael Omotoso, senior manager for global powertrain research at J.D. Power. “All these technologies exist right now, but we expect wider adoption going forward.” These mileage boosters either burn fuel more completely, or run on lower power or fewer cylinders most of the time, with additional power kicking in just when needed.
- Drawback: Gasoline still requires a steady supply of petroleum and is vulnerable to world events, price spikes and supply disruption.
- Our picks: Honda Fit, for now — though the European Ford Fiesta and Focus look promising.
Though well-established by now, hybrid models such as the Toyota Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid see their sales rise and fall with gasoline prices. One drawback is their higher price compared with gasoline models. The 2010 Ford Escape hybrid small SUV, for example, has a base price of $29,785 compared with $23,575 for the non-hybrid XLT model.
Toyota, already the leader in hybrids, said at the Detroit Auto Show that it will intoduce eight new hybrid vehicles over the next few years. BMW also is working on a small-car hybrid. J.D. Power’s Omotoso predicts that hybrids, now just under 3 percent of U.S. auto sales, will rise to around 9 percent by 2016 and 12 percent by 2020.
- Drawback: It will be hard to get prices down enough to attract shoppers motivated solely by economics, not environmental principles.
- Our picks: Nissan Altima among hybrid sedans, Ford Escape among hybrid SUVs.
Volkswagen Jetta TDICurrent diesel models are terrific new cars with an old image problem. But federal requirements for clean diesel fuel mean that sleek, quiet models from Volkswagen, BMW, Audi and Mercedes now meet standards for nitrogen oxides and other pollutants — even in California, where they had been banned. J.D. Power projects diesels, now about 3 percent of sales, to reach 8.5 percent by 2016 and around 10 percent by 2020 as more buyers realize their merits. One of the biggest selling points is mileage, which is competitive with hybrids — especially in highway driving. (Volkswagen’s Jetta, for instance is rated at 40 mpg on the highway and 29 in the city.)
- Drawback: The cost of diesel fuel, now about equal with gasoline, can spike under some circumstances, as it did in 2008.
- Our pick: Volkswagen Jetta TDI is an affordable diesel that’s fun to drive.
Plug-in electric cars have the most buzz going into the new decade. Niche electrics like the rocket-fast Tesla Roadster at more than $100,000 are already available, but late this year consumers will get a chance to buy two models aimed at volume sales — the all-electric Nissan Leaf and the battery-powered Chevrolet Volt, which has an auxiliary gasoline engine for recharging. The Volt will sell at around $40,000 and the Leaf about $25,000; the first 60,000 buyers will also get a $7,500 federal tax credit. But price is likely to remain an issue. “The tax credit will help, but battery-based cars can be expected to be more expensive for years in the future,” says Jack Nerad, executive editorial director and market analyst for Kelley Blue Book. Plug-ins will hit only about 1 percent market share by 2016 and perhaps 5 percent by 2020, according to J.D. Power forecasts.
- Drawback: With the Leaf needing recharging after 100 miles and the Volt running out of battery power after 40 miles (though the gas engine will recharge it, extending the range), plug-ins only work well as commuter cars. Long road trips require another vehicle.
- Our pick: We haven’t driven these yet, but the Nissan Leaf has a more reasonable price. The Chevy Volt would obviously be a better bet, however, if you’d be nervous without backup recharging.
Further out on the green-car horizon, both General Motors and Honda have prototype hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that drive just like traditional cars except with no noise and no emissions except water. And Honda actually makes and sells about 2,000 Civic GXs a year. The cars are powered by clean-burning, low-emission natural gas — an increasingly abundant fuel in the U.S. But hydrogen and natural gas cars share a huge problem: refueling spots are hard to find. That makes their likely combined market share less than 1 percent even by 2020 — although they might gain some ground as fleet vehicles, which could have their own refueling stations.
- Drawback: The huge investment needed for widespread refueling stations may be a permanent roadblock.
- Our pick: if it ever goes on the market, GM’s fuel-cell Chevrolet Equinox is a terrific drive with almost no environmental impact.
- 6 Big Myths about Gas Mileage
- Video: Tesla Test Drive
- 6 American Cars Worth Buying Now
- Skip the Hybrid ... for a Diesel?
- Save on Gas: 9 Ways to Drive Smarter
- Why Oil Prices Swing So Wildly
#2
12-08-2010, 04:47 PM
I'll try to avoid the politics... problem I have with these "green" cars is that they're smaller, more expensive to purchase and fix, and the technology for the batteries is just as, if not more dangerous than petroleum fuels. Granted the Tesla is a cool looking car, but what is the range on that thing?
I remember the Chevy EV1 during the 90s. Sure, it looked cool, and from what I read, it had no problem dusting some of the European sports cars. But the range sucked - like in the 70-150 mile range on a full charge. From what I read, the Tesla Roadster will only push 244 miles - whether that is using AC and other options is unknown. I know with the EV1, running the AC or radio killed your millage, and the car was six shades of useless in the colder climates. Taking into account that charging these things will require electricity, fed by power plants, which in turn are usually fed by fossil fuels.
I do not see the benefits of this, especially considering our electric grid is stressed during the summer months and coldest months in the winter. And I'll be blunt here - my back side hurts enough from how bad I'm nailed with the current electric rates. I don't want to know what this will do to my utility bills, which raises another question: what is this Government's love affair with electric cars?
Electric lawn tools have been around for 20+ years, and they still suck. Sorry, give me a carbon emitting lawnmower over an electric POS any day.
I really surprised the article did not mention bio diesels fuels, something I personally feel we need to focus on opposed to these electric pieces of junk. They have already proven they grow crops of algea and Jatropha curcas plants to create a bio deiesel from the oils. The current technology runs more efficient than gasoline engines, is renewable, and wouldn't require more pollution from the power plants. The added benefit of the Jatropa plants, is that other countries in less desirable climates can benefit from this plant.
Anyways, I didn't mean to get on a soap box, just wanted to comment on the article. In 2016, hopefully GM will have wisened up and we'll have a 2016 Monte Carlo hybrid so I'll have something nice to drive when I pass of "Veronica" to my daughter, who will be driving then...
I remember the Chevy EV1 during the 90s. Sure, it looked cool, and from what I read, it had no problem dusting some of the European sports cars. But the range sucked - like in the 70-150 mile range on a full charge. From what I read, the Tesla Roadster will only push 244 miles - whether that is using AC and other options is unknown. I know with the EV1, running the AC or radio killed your millage, and the car was six shades of useless in the colder climates. Taking into account that charging these things will require electricity, fed by power plants, which in turn are usually fed by fossil fuels.
I do not see the benefits of this, especially considering our electric grid is stressed during the summer months and coldest months in the winter. And I'll be blunt here - my back side hurts enough from how bad I'm nailed with the current electric rates. I don't want to know what this will do to my utility bills, which raises another question: what is this Government's love affair with electric cars?
Electric lawn tools have been around for 20+ years, and they still suck. Sorry, give me a carbon emitting lawnmower over an electric POS any day.
I really surprised the article did not mention bio diesels fuels, something I personally feel we need to focus on opposed to these electric pieces of junk. They have already proven they grow crops of algea and Jatropha curcas plants to create a bio deiesel from the oils. The current technology runs more efficient than gasoline engines, is renewable, and wouldn't require more pollution from the power plants. The added benefit of the Jatropa plants, is that other countries in less desirable climates can benefit from this plant.
Anyways, I didn't mean to get on a soap box, just wanted to comment on the article. In 2016, hopefully GM will have wisened up and we'll have a 2016 Monte Carlo hybrid so I'll have something nice to drive when I pass of "Veronica" to my daughter, who will be driving then...
#3
12-08-2010, 07:25 PM
If I still have the freedom to own a car (uh getting political..) Sugaree will have 365,000 miles, I don't intend on changing a thing. Only if some personal situation affects my needs would I defer to a truck or exotic.
I have come to think that the Monte is a true future classic. When all the Altimas have been recycled into lawn furniture and the Priusses have been declared ewaste there will be a few cars in the 2030s that will be remembered. If you have a Dale or Pace car you will be at Pebble Beach in the concourse de elegance showing it off.
I have come to think that the Monte is a true future classic. When all the Altimas have been recycled into lawn furniture and the Priusses have been declared ewaste there will be a few cars in the 2030s that will be remembered. If you have a Dale or Pace car you will be at Pebble Beach in the concourse de elegance showing it off.
#5
12-08-2010, 07:56 PM
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 1,715
In 2016, my son will be driving a mint condition 2002 Monte Carlo ss "Limited Edition", I'll be driving a Camaro ss (fully loaded with 400+hp)... If the Volt were to be completly redesigned with that kind of performance I'd get it... Oh wait, then it would be a Camaro... Guess I'll stick with option #1... lol... 
#6
12-08-2010, 09:16 PM
I don't see anything wrong with owning an electric car. Is it limited range? Yes. Does it do everything just like a gasoline powered vehicle? No. Is gasoline just starting in the automotive industry? Wait...did I just ask that? Of course the answer is no to that last question. Gasoline has been powering vehicles for over a hundred years. What's my point then?
My point is that electric powered vehicles have come a long way since the last real electric car (GM EV1). The last EV1 was confiscated by GM in 2004 with almost no other electric car out there after that, and the technology is already getting better. Imagine what electric cars could be after 100 years of development. You have to start somewhere.
As far as them putting stress on our electric grid, that is true that they could do that. But think of it like this. What if everyone who had their own home bought an electric car? Now, what if all of them decided that they could become self sufficient by producing their own electricity via solar panels (solar shingles for example). If you do that, the power companies often times buy the over flow of electricity from you. You could not only become energy independent, you could also be selling a product (electricity) and helping the environment all at the same time. It's a win win.
I'm all for alternative fuels no matter how far fetched some may be (hydrogen fuels), or how easy they could be (biodiesel). Let's work our way off of foreign oil. We'll be better off for it. Sorry, now I will get off of my soap box
I will more then likely be driving another w-body at that time. I love the 3800's
My point is that electric powered vehicles have come a long way since the last real electric car (GM EV1). The last EV1 was confiscated by GM in 2004 with almost no other electric car out there after that, and the technology is already getting better. Imagine what electric cars could be after 100 years of development. You have to start somewhere.
As far as them putting stress on our electric grid, that is true that they could do that. But think of it like this. What if everyone who had their own home bought an electric car? Now, what if all of them decided that they could become self sufficient by producing their own electricity via solar panels (solar shingles for example). If you do that, the power companies often times buy the over flow of electricity from you. You could not only become energy independent, you could also be selling a product (electricity) and helping the environment all at the same time. It's a win win.
I'm all for alternative fuels no matter how far fetched some may be (hydrogen fuels), or how easy they could be (biodiesel). Let's work our way off of foreign oil. We'll be better off for it. Sorry, now I will get off of my soap box
I will more then likely be driving another w-body at that time. I love the 3800's
#7
12-09-2010, 05:30 AM
,,,I thought when I posted the above thread that it may just be filling in some empty space on the MCF....
I really enjoyed reading the above member's comments, opinions and posts on this subject....Thank You.....
I've noticed again the price of fuel increasing again every week, and sometimes every day....I purchased gas this morning & paid $2.92.9 a gal for regular....
#8
12-09-2010, 07:32 AM
But hey - that's a nickle a gallon. 75 cents a fillup. $2.25 a week. meh. So I skip the mini mart for a soda.
Chris - lol! Not so obscure..
Last edited by Barovelli; 12-09-2010 at 07:39 AM.
#10
12-09-2010, 08:26 AM
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Wauconda, IL
Posts: 13,335
I will still have the 03 and for my Daily Driver I will be driving a Dodge Challenger RT classic package in Plum Crazy Purple!